Oakland Crime Rate Trends
The city, by the numbers we publish each month: 35 neighborhoods, 10 incident categories, twelve months of trailing comparison. Browse the rankings, scan the multi-year trends, or open a neighborhood-level breakdown.
Millsmont homicide is the dominant signal in March 2026 — the sharpest single-neighborhood move this briefing. The category registered an above-trend spike in a neighborhood where homicide counts are typically low, making it the most statistically distinct shift across Oakland this month. No prior-month lead combo carries over; this is a fresh signal at the top of the rankings.
Citywide volume is down 21.4% against the prior 12 months — 27,715 incidents versus 35,259 the year before. The mix is weighted heavily toward declines: 72 sustained-shift signals and 66 below-trend signals across 35 neighborhoods, against just 3 fresh spikes and 1 streak break. Piedmont Pines appears twice in the top five, with both an other-larceny spike and an aggravated-assault streak break, while San Antonio robbery ran below trend.
The broad structural picture in Oakland is one of sustained decline — 142 total signals this month tilt overwhelmingly toward the downside. The Millsmont homicide spike is the one category that cuts against that pattern and warrants watching into April. Whether it reflects a cluster or the start of a directional change in the neighborhood is not yet determinable from a single month of data.
Oakland Crime Frequently Asked Questions
Trailing 12 months vs the prior 12 months, computed from the same NIBRS-aligned categories used everywhere else on the page. Updated each March 2026 briefing.
Is crime in Oakland down?
Yes — citywide incident volume is 21.4% lower than the prior 12 months.
Across the trailing 12-month window we tracked 27,715 incidents in NIBRS-aligned categories, compared to 35,259 in the year before — down 7,544 incidents.
Is violent crime in Oakland down?
Yes — homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, and sexual assault are down 24.8% combined in the trailing 12 months.
That's 3,981 violent incidents in the past year against 5,292 in the prior year. See the by-category section below for the per-bucket breakdown.
Is property crime in Oakland down?
Yes — burglary, theft from vehicle, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson are down 20.3% combined in the trailing 12 months.
That's 20,763 property incidents in the past year against 26,047 in the prior year.
Which neighborhood in Oakland saw the biggest crime drop?
Brookfield Village — 43.1% fewer incidents than the prior 12 months.
Brookfield Village logged 892 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 1,569 the year before.
Which neighborhood in Oakland saw the biggest crime increase?
Rockridge — 15.5% more incidents than the prior 12 months.
Rockridge logged 1,304 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 1,129 the year before.
The denominators behind the numbers
Bay-fronting, hill-stacked city; the I-580 ridge and Highway 13 carve the flatlands from the hills, and major arterials (Telegraph, MacArthur, International) define most neighborhood boundaries.
ACS 2023 5-year estimates, county-level (Alameda County). Includes Oakland plus other Alameda municipalities in the demographic aggregates — county is the smallest official ACS geography matching where Oakland city data lives.
City-level only. We deliberately do not juxtapose these with neighborhood-level crime data — see the methodology for why.
Mixed-density city: walkable flatlands corridors (Telegraph, College, International) coexist with car-dependent hills neighborhoods. Crime-rate denominators differ sharply between the two.
OPD migrated to NIBRS reporting in 2021; pre-2021 records use a different taxonomy and are excluded from the analysis window. Up to 90 days of post-month processing means recent months may be incomplete.
Every neighborhood, color-coded
Largest moves this month
| # | Neighborhood | Category | MoM | YoY 12mo | |z| | 90-day trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Millsmont | Homicide | 0% | +25% | 4.16 | SPIKE | |
| 02 | Piedmont Pines | Other Larceny | +300% | +4% | 2.53 | SPIKE | |
| 03 | Rockridge | Theft from Vehicle | -11% | +62% | 2.53 | SPIKE | |
| 04 | Piedmont Pines | Aggravated Assault | — | — | — | STREAK BREAK | |
| 05 | San Antonio | Robbery | -50% | -56% | 5.96 | DROP | |
| 06 | Seminary Park | Vandalism | 0% | -22% | 4.91 | DROP | |
| 07 | West Oakland | Burglary | -42% | -44% | 4.90 | DROP | |
| 08 | Brookfield Village | Motor Vehicle Theft | +18% | -38% | 4.82 | DROP | |
| 09 | Maxwell Park | Vandalism | -17% | -44% | 4.81 | DROP | |
| 10 | Glenview | Aggravated Assault | -100% | -38% | 4.76 | DROP | |
| 11 | Lockwood Gardens | Motor Vehicle Theft | +22% | -36% | 4.55 | DROP | |
| 12 | Lockwood Gardens | Vandalism | -40% | -19% | 4.47 | DROP |
The long arc — eight years of monthly counts
Four neighborhoods worth your time
Millsmont
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 83% above the 11 average from prior years.
Read briefing →SPIKE · OTHER LARCENYPiedmont Pines
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 31% above the 40 average from prior years.
Read briefing →SPIKE · THEFT FROM VEHICLERockridge
The past 12 months saw 732 incidents — about 75% above the 418 average from prior years.
Read briefing →STREAK BREAK · AGGRAVATED ASSAULTPiedmont Pines
First incident since February 2024 — a 2-year gap ended this month.
Read briefing →Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents citywide across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
All 35 Oakland neighborhoods
Crime rate trends and March 2026 briefings for every tracked neighborhood. Alphabetical.
- Adams Point crime rate
- Brookfield Village crime rate
- Chinatown crime rate
- Clinton crime rate
- Dimond District crime rate
- Downtown crime rate
- Eastlake crime rate
- Eastmont crime rate
- Elmhurst crime rate
- Financial District crime rate
- Fruitvale crime rate
- Glenview crime rate
- Golden Gate crime rate
- Grand Lake crime rate
- Jack London Square crime rate
- Jingletown crime rate
- Laurel crime rate
- Lockwood Gardens crime rate
- Longfellow crime rate
- Maxwell Park crime rate
- Melrose crime rate
- Millsmont crime rate
- Montclair crime rate
- Oakmore Highlands crime rate
- Piedmont Avenue crime rate
- Piedmont Pines crime rate
- Pill Hill crime rate
- Rockridge crime rate
- San Antonio crime rate
- Seminary Park crime rate
- Temescal crime rate
- Upper Rockridge crime rate
- Uptown crime rate
- West Oakland crime rate
- Westlake crime rate
Every signal, every forecast, documented
Open about how we define spikes, what we exclude as noise, where the data comes from, and how often the model is wrong.