Millsmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Millsmont is a hillside neighborhood east of the Mills College campus, between Millsmont Avenue and the I-580 transition. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on sloped streets with views toward the bay.
Four categories moved in Millsmont in August 2026, with a sharply different character across the mix. Homicide registered as the month's spike signal, a rare-event-level concentration for a neighborhood of this size. Two categories, aggravated assault and theft from vehicle, ran below trend. Motor vehicle theft is in a sustained structural shift downward. The overall pattern is mostly easing property crime set against a serious, countervailing rise in homicide.
Homicide is the number that stands out: 26 incidents in the current 12 months against 15 in the prior 12, a 73.3% increase year over year. Theft from vehicle moved in the opposite direction, 20 incidents in the current 12 months against 45 in the prior year, down 55.6%. Aggravated assault fell 30.0% over the same window, 14 incidents against 20. Everything else tracked within a narrower band, vandalism, burglary, robbery, and other larceny all down modestly, leaving the homicide count as the structural outlier in an otherwise broadly declining crime picture.
Notable signals 3
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 127% above the 11 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 66% below the 41 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 64% below the 55 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 20, down 56% from 45 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Millsmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Chinatown
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Millsmont's 26.
Open page →Maxwell Park
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Millsmont's 26.
Open page →Lockwood Gardens
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Millsmont's 26.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Millsmontdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Homicide | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Millsmont's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millsmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.