Millsmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Millsmont is a hillside neighborhood east of the Mills College campus, between Millsmont Avenue and the I-580 transition. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on sloped streets with views toward the bay.
Three categories moved in Millsmont in May 2026 — one spike, one single-month drop, and one sustained structural shift. The shape is mixed rather than directionally clean: homicide is the most serious signal, but aggravated assault and theft from vehicle both moved in the opposite direction, pulling against it.
Homicide is the headline: 21 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 11.21 — a meaningful gap above trend and the strongest signal this briefing. Aggravated assault ran below trend this month, and the 12-month picture there is sharply lower as well, down 50.0% against the prior year (14 incidents vs. 28). Theft from vehicle has made a structural move downward — 22 incidents in the current year against 48 in the prior — a sustained shift, not just a quiet month.
Notable signals 2
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 87% above the 11 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 67% below the 43 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 54% from 48 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Millsmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Melrose
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Millsmont's 21.
Open page →Chinatown
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Millsmont's 21.
Open page →Dimond District
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Millsmont's 21.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Millsmontdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Homicide | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Millsmont's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millsmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.