Millsmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Millsmont is a hillside neighborhood east of the Mills College campus, between Millsmont Avenue and the I-580 transition. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on sloped streets with views toward the bay.
Four categories moved in Millsmont this March — one spike, two below-trend drops, and one sustained shift. The dominant signal is a homicide spike, but the month also shows meaningful downward movement in violent and property crime, making this a mixed rather than uniformly grim picture.
Homicide is the lead: 20 incidents in the trailing 12 months against a baseline mean of 10.93, up 25.0% from the prior year's 16. Aggravated assault ran below trend and is down 46.7% year-over-year — 16 incidents against 30 in the prior 12 months. Vandalism also came in below trend, down 25.0% to 36 incidents from 48. Theft from vehicle, while not among the top signals this month, shows the sharpest structural move in the data: 22 incidents against 55 the prior year, a 60.0% decline that reflects the sustained-shift pattern rather than a single quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 83% above the 11 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 57% below the 83 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 16 incidents — about 63% below the 43 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 60% from 55 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Millsmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Chinatown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Millsmont's 20.
Open page →San Antonio
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Millsmont's 20.
Open page →Eastmont
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Millsmont's 20.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Millsmontdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Homicide | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Millsmont's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millsmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.