Millsmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Millsmont is a hillside neighborhood east of the Mills College campus, between Millsmont Avenue and the I-580 transition. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on sloped streets with views toward the bay.
Four categories moved in Millsmont this March — one spike, two below-trend drops, and one sustained shift. The leading signal is a homicide spike: 20 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 10.93, the sharpest single-category move in the neighborhood this briefing. The structural backdrop is otherwise downward across property and violent crime.
Aggravated assault and vandalism both ran below trend this month — aggravated assault is down 46.7% against the prior 12 months (16 incidents vs. 30), and vandalism is down 27.1% (35 vs. 48). Theft from vehicle carries the sustained-shift signal, off 61.8% over the same window at 21 incidents against 55 the prior year. Everything else — robbery flat at 13, other larceny down just 1.3% — was within the normal range.
Notable signals 3
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 83% above the 11 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 35 incidents — about 58% below the 83 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 16 incidents — about 63% below the 43 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 62% from 55 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Millsmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millsmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.