Millsmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Millsmont is a hillside neighborhood east of the Mills College campus, between Millsmont Avenue and the I-580 transition. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on sloped streets with views toward the bay.
Three categories moved in Millsmont this July: one spike and two below-trend signals. The dominant signal is homicide, which registered as a spike against its multi-year baseline. The two drops, aggravated assault and theft from vehicle, run in the opposite direction, so the month's picture is mixed rather than uniformly worse or uniformly better.
Homicide is the sharpest move: 25 incidents in the current 12-month window against 14 in the prior 12 months, up 78.6% year over year. Aggravated assault moved the other way, down 41.7% to 14 incidents from 24. Theft from vehicle fell even more sharply, 18 incidents against 50 in the prior year, a 64.0% drop. Everything else, burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and robbery, stayed within normal range this month.
Notable signals 3
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 120% above the 11 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 67% below the 42 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 18 incidents — about 67% below the 55 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Millsmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Chinatown
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Millsmont's 25.
Open page →Lockwood Gardens
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Millsmont's 25.
Open page →Maxwell Park
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Millsmont's 25.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Millsmontdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Homicide | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Millsmont's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millsmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.