Grand Lake Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Grand Lake is a Lake Merritt-adjacent neighborhood organized around the Grand Lake Theatre, the Grand Avenue commercial strip, and Lakeshore Avenue. A mix of pre-war apartment buildings and Victorian houses, with weekend farmers markets at Splash Pad Park.
Five signals surfaced in Grand Lake this month — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad, multi-category decline across property crime: nothing moved upward, and the pattern holds across both single-month reads and the longer 12-month window.
Vandalism and Theft from Vehicle both ran below trend in March 2026. Theft from Vehicle also registered as a sustained shift, with the trailing 12-month total at 124 incidents against 199 the prior year — down 37.7%. Vandalism tells a similar story: 67 incidents in the current 12 months against a longer-term baseline mean of 211.97, and a 38.0% drop year-over-year. Motor Vehicle Theft and Other Larceny round out the broader picture, each down more than 15% on a 12-month basis.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 68% below the 212 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 63% below the 336 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 38% from 199 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 31% from 189 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 67, down 38% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Grand Lake compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Dimond District
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Grand Lake's 67.
Open page →Eastlake
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Grand Lake's 67.
Open page →Glenview
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Grand Lake's 67.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Grand Lake, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.