Grand Lake Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Grand Lake is a Lake Merritt-adjacent neighborhood organized around the Grand Lake Theatre, the Grand Avenue commercial strip, and Lakeshore Avenue. A mix of pre-war apartment buildings and Victorian houses, with weekend farmers markets at Splash Pad Park.
Five signals moved in Grand Lake this March — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend in the single-month signals, while theft from vehicle also registers as a sustained shift — the 12-month total is 127 incidents against 199 the prior year, down 36.2%. Vandalism's 12-month total is 67 against a multi-year baseline of 211.97. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny follow a similar pattern, down 31.2% and 15.5% respectively over the trailing 12 months.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 68% below the 212 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 127 incidents — about 62% below the 336 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 127, down 36% from 199 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 31% from 189 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 67, down 38% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Grand Lake compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Dimond District
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Grand Lake's 67.
Open page →Eastlake
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Grand Lake's 67.
Open page →Glenview
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Grand Lake's 67.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Grand Lake, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.