Glenview Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Glenview is a residential foothill neighborhood between MacArthur Boulevard and the I-580/Park Boulevard split. Single-family bungalows on sloped, tree-lined streets, with a small commercial strip on Park Boulevard near Excelsior Avenue.
Four signals across Glenview this month — two one-month below-trend drops and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward, concentrated in violent crime and vehicle-related theft, with the sustained shifts indicating this is not a single quiet month but a multi-month structural move.
Aggravated assault is the sharpest single-month signal: the current 12-month total of 20 incidents sits well below the 44.5 baseline mean, and down 23.1% against the prior 12 months. Theft from vehicle appears twice in the top signals — once as a one-month drop and once as a sustained shift — with the 12-month total falling to 69 from 158 the year prior, a 56.3% reduction. The remaining categories, including robbery (down 37.2% to 27 incidents) and other larceny (down 23.2% to 251), were within range for single-month readings but reinforce the same directional pattern.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 55% below the 45 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 69 incidents — about 71% below the 237 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 69, down 56% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 155, down 26% from 210 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glenview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Downtown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Glenview's 20.
Open page →Jingletown
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Glenview's 20.
Open page →Adams Point
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Glenview's 20.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glenview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.