Glenview Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Glenview is a residential foothill neighborhood between MacArthur Boulevard and the I-580/Park Boulevard split. Single-family bungalows on sloped, tree-lined streets, with a small commercial strip on Park Boulevard near Excelsior Avenue.
Four categories moved in Glenview this July, split evenly between one-month below-trend signals and longer structural shifts. The overall shape is downward: two categories ran below trend for the month, and two others show sustained multi-month decreases rather than a single quiet period. Property crime, particularly theft from vehicle, is the clearest structural story.
Aggravated assault and theft from vehicle both came in below trend for the month. Theft from vehicle also registers as a sustained shift, 59 incidents over the current 12 months against 140 in the prior 12, a drop of 57.9% year over year. Robbery is down 19.4% over the same window, 29 incidents against 36. Vandalism is the one category moving the other direction, up 10.8% year over year, 82 incidents against 74, and the only meaningful counter to an otherwise broad decline across Glenview categories.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 52% below the 44 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 75% below the 233 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 58% from 140 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 236, down 25% from 315 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glenview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Jingletown
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Glenview's 21.
Open page →Adams Point
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Glenview's 21.
Open page →Downtown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Glenview's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glenview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.