Glenview Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Glenview is a residential foothill neighborhood between MacArthur Boulevard and the I-580/Park Boulevard split. Single-family bungalows on sloped, tree-lined streets, with a small commercial strip on Park Boulevard near Excelsior Avenue.
Five categories moved in Glenview this March — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern runs broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Aggravated assault and theft from vehicle both ran below trend this month; aggravated assault is down 38.2% against the prior 12 months, 21 incidents vs. 34. Robbery is carrying the most durable signal: down 50.0% over the trailing year (26 incidents vs. 52), and classified as a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Theft from vehicle shows a similar structural story, off 46.5% year-over-year at 85 incidents vs. 159. The remaining tracked categories — burglary, motor vehicle theft, vandalism — are all inside their normal ranges but each is also running meaningfully below the prior year, reinforcing the directional consistency across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 54% below the 45 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 85 incidents — about 65% below the 241 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 47% from 159 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 152, down 34% from 231 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 26, down 50% from 52 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glenview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Adams Point
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Glenview's 21.
Open page →Financial District
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Glenview's 21.
Open page →Downtown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Glenview's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glenview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.