Glenview Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Glenview is a residential foothill neighborhood between MacArthur Boulevard and the I-580/Park Boulevard split. Single-family bungalows on sloped, tree-lined streets, with a small commercial strip on Park Boulevard near Excelsior Avenue.
Five signals surfaced in Glenview this March — two one-month below-trend drops and three sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The overall shape is a broad, multi-category decline across both violent and property crime, not a single outlier pulling the numbers.
Aggravated assault and theft from vehicle both ran below trend this month; over the trailing 12 months, aggravated assault sits at 21 incidents against a baseline average of 45.33 — a reduction of 38.2% vs. the prior year. Robbery's sustained shift tells a longer story: 26 incidents over the current 12 months vs. 52 in the 12 before, down 50.0%. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism follow the same structural pattern, with 12-month totals down 34.2% and 30.1% respectively against the prior year. Every category outside these five was within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 54% below the 45 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 83 incidents — about 65% below the 241 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 83, down 48% from 159 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 152, down 34% from 231 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 26, down 50% from 52 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glenview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Adams Point
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Glenview's 21.
Open page →Financial District
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Glenview's 21.
Open page →Downtown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Glenview's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glenview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.