Eastlake Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Eastlake is a residential and commercial area along East 14th/International Boulevard immediately east of Lake Merritt. Anchored by the Lake Merritt boathouse, the historic Cleveland Cascade, and a corridor of small businesses and restaurants.
Four tracked signals shaped Eastlake's July 2026 briefing, two single-month drops and two sustained shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The structural pattern is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest signal, appearing both as a single-month drop and as a multi-month sustained shift. The trailing 12-month total stands at 55 incidents, down from 86 in the prior year, a 36.0% reduction. Robbery shows a similar arc, 39 incidents over the current 12 months against 62 in the year before, a 37.1% decline. Everything else in the bucket-level data, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, other larceny, held within a broadly downward range; sexual assault is the one category running above the prior year, at 11 incidents vs. 7.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 38% below the 89 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 48% below the 75 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 177, down 30% from 252 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 36% from 86 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Eastlake compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Eastmont
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Eastlake's 55.
Open page →Brookfield Village
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Eastlake's 55.
Open page →Glenview
59 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Eastlake's 55.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Eastlake, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.