Eastlake Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Eastlake is a residential and commercial area along East 14th/International Boulevard immediately east of Lake Merritt. Anchored by the Lake Merritt boathouse, the historic Cleveland Cascade, and a corridor of small businesses and restaurants.
Two categories moved in Eastlake this March — both below trend, both in property crime. Theft from Vehicle and Vandalism each registered as one-month below-trend signals against an otherwise stable backdrop. The rest of the tracked categories sat within normal range.
Theft from Vehicle is the stronger of the two signals: the current 12-month total is 68 incidents, down 28.4% against the prior 12 months (95). That 12-month figure also runs below the baseline mean of 89.4. Vandalism follows a similar direction, with the current 12-month count at 66 vs. 72 the year before, a drop of 8.3%. The broader property picture in Eastlake reinforces this — Other Larceny is down 23.7%, Motor Vehicle Theft down 23.0%, and Burglary down 11.3% over the same window.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 68 incidents — about 24% below the 89 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 66 incidents — about 48% below the 126 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Eastlake compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Dimond District
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Eastlake's 68.
Open page →Brookfield Village
78 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Eastlake's 68.
Open page →Glenview
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 above Eastlake's 68.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Eastlake, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.