Maxwell Park Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Maxwell Park is an East Oakland hillside neighborhood between High Street and Coliseum Way, organized around the eponymous Maxwell Park natural area. Largely Spanish Revival and Craftsman housing on sloped, tree-lined streets.
Two categories moved in Maxwell Park this August briefing, a narrow month by any measure. Vandalism registered a one-month below-trend signal, the strongest single move this period, while theft from vehicle showed a sustained structural shift downward across the trailing 12 months. The rest of the tracked categories were within their normal ranges.
Theft from vehicle tells the sharper longer-term story: 32 incidents over the current 12 months against 78 in the prior year, down 59.0%. Vandalism's current 12-month total sits at 50 incidents, well below the prior 12-month count of 64, a 21.9% gap year-over-year. Burglary and robbery also ran lower on a 12-month basis, down 57.1% and 34.7% respectively, though neither crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 56% below the 113 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 32, down 59% from 78 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Maxwell Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Longfellow
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Maxwell Park's 50.
Open page →Grand Lake
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Maxwell Park's 50.
Open page →Golden Gate
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Maxwell Park's 50.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Maxwell Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.