Maxwell Park Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Maxwell Park is an East Oakland hillside neighborhood between High Street and Coliseum Way, organized around the eponymous Maxwell Park natural area. Largely Spanish Revival and Craftsman housing on sloped, tree-lined streets.
Maxwell Park logged three signals in May 2026 — one single-month drop and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is downward across property crime: burglary and theft from vehicle have each moved structurally lower over the trailing 12 months, while vandalism turned in a notable one-month below-trend reading on top of that.
Burglary is down 65.0% against the prior 12 months (21 incidents vs. 60), and theft from vehicle is down 45.9% (40 vs. 74) — both sustained shifts, not single-month noise. Vandalism sits at 55 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 116.17, the largest single-month gap of the three signals. Everything else — other larceny, motor vehicle theft, aggravated assault, robbery — fell within normal range this period.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 53% below the 116 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 65% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 46% from 74 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Maxwell Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Longfellow
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Maxwell Park's 55.
Open page →Laurel
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Maxwell Park's 55.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Maxwell Park's 55.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Maxwell Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.