Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Rockridge is a North Oakland neighborhood organized around the Rockridge BART station and the College Avenue commercial corridor. Predominantly Craftsman and Bungalow single-family housing, bordered by Berkeley to the north and Broadway/Highway 24 to the west.
Four signals surfaced in Rockridge this March — one spike, one below-trend month, and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant story is a split: theft from vehicle is running well above its historical baseline while burglary has moved structurally lower over the past two years. That divergence shapes the month more than any single number.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest signal: 732 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline mean of 418.2, and up 61.9% against the prior 12 months. Burglary tells the opposite story — 72 incidents this year vs. 123 prior, a 41.5% reduction that has now held long enough to register as a sustained shift rather than a single quiet stretch. Motor vehicle theft ran below trend this month, and robbery is also down 35.7% year-over-year to 18 incidents. Everything else — homicide, aggravated assault, other larceny, vandalism — stayed within normal range.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 732 incidents — about 75% above the 418 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 103 incidents — about 38% below the 166 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 732, up 62% from 452 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 42% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Temescal
932 incidents over the past 12 months — 200 above Rockridge's 732.
Open page →Chinatown
308 incidents over the past 12 months — 424 below Rockridge's 732.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
308 incidents over the past 12 months — 424 below Rockridge's 732.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.