Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Rockridge is a North Oakland neighborhood organized around the Rockridge BART station and the College Avenue commercial corridor. Predominantly Craftsman and Bungalow single-family housing, bordered by Berkeley to the north and Broadway/Highway 24 to the west.
Four signals surfaced in Rockridge this May — one single-month spike and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant move is theft from vehicle, which registered both a one-month spike and a multi-year structural increase. On the other side, burglary has shifted structurally downward, a multi-month pattern, not a single quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the clearest story: 752 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 421.4 — up 52.5% from the prior 12-month total of 493. Burglary moved in the opposite direction, down 49.1% year-over-year (59 incidents vs. 116). Robbery also fell sharply over the same window, down 34.6% to 17 incidents from 26, though it did not cross a signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 752 incidents — about 78% above the 421 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 752, up 53% from 493 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 49% from 116 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 197, up 48% from 133 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Temescal
980 incidents over the past 12 months — 228 above Rockridge's 752.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
324 incidents over the past 12 months — 428 below Rockridge's 752.
Open page →Chinatown
302 incidents over the past 12 months — 450 below Rockridge's 752.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Rockridgedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Theft from vehicle | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Rockridge's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.