Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Rockridge is a North Oakland neighborhood organized around the Rockridge BART station and the College Avenue commercial corridor. Predominantly Craftsman and Bungalow single-family housing, bordered by Berkeley to the north and Broadway/Highway 24 to the west.
Four categories moved in Rockridge this March — one spike, one drop, and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant signal is a sharp move in theft from vehicle, but the broader picture is mixed: property crime is reorganizing rather than uniformly declining, with burglary falling hard on a multi-year basis while vehicle-related theft runs in the opposite direction.
Theft from vehicle stands at 756 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 418.2 — a 67.3% increase year-over-year. Burglary tells the opposing story: 72 incidents in the current 12 months versus 123 in the prior year, a sustained shift down 41.5% that spans multiple periods. Motor vehicle theft ran below trend this month, and robbery is also down 35.7% on a 12-month basis, though neither registered as a sustained structural move.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 756 incidents — about 81% above the 418 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 102 incidents — about 39% below the 166 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 756, up 67% from 452 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 42% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Temescal
969 incidents over the past 12 months — 213 above Rockridge's 756.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
318 incidents over the past 12 months — 438 below Rockridge's 756.
Open page →Chinatown
313 incidents over the past 12 months — 443 below Rockridge's 756.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Rockridgedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Theft from vehicle | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Rockridge's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.