Uptown Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Uptown is a downtown-adjacent neighborhood centered on the 19th Street BART station and the Telegraph Avenue commercial corridor between 17th and 27th Streets. Anchored by the historic Fox and Paramount theaters and a concentration of art deco and mid-century commercial buildings.
Six categories moved in Uptown this May — three drops, one spike, and two sustained shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward across property crime, with one sharp exception: homicide registered as the month's most prominent signal, the category running furthest above its multi-year baseline.
Robbery and burglary both ran below trend, continuing what the 12-month totals confirm: robbery is down 47.4% against the prior year (20 incidents vs. 38), and burglary is down 36.4% (35 vs. 55). Against that backdrop, homicide stands out — 31 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 24.45, and up 40.9% year-over-year from 22. The two sustained shifts round out a month where structural improvement in property crime coexists with a violent-crime category moving in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 4
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 27% above the 24 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 61% below the 51 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 35 incidents — about 54% below the 76 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 72% below the 348 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 156, down 27% from 215 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 97, down 32% from 143 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Uptown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Pill Hill
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Uptown's 31.
Open page →Adams Point
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Uptown's 31.
Open page →Brookfield Village
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Uptown's 31.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Uptowndoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Homicide | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Uptown's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Uptown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.