Uptown Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Uptown is a downtown-adjacent neighborhood centered on the 19th Street BART station and the Telegraph Avenue commercial corridor between 17th and 27th Streets. Anchored by the historic Fox and Paramount theaters and a concentration of art deco and mid-century commercial buildings.
July 2026 was a structurally quiet month for Uptown: no category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the top-3 signals list is empty. The shape of the month is one of broad, slow-moving year-over-year change rather than any single fresh move.
The 12-month picture carries more weight than the current month alone. Aggravated assault is up 56.7% against the prior year, 47 incidents vs 30, the sharpest directional move in the dataset. Homicide also ran higher, 30 vs 25, a 20.0% increase over the same window. Against that, property categories held the other direction: burglary is down 27.1% (35 vs 48), sexual assault down 40.0% (9 vs 15), and motor vehicle theft down 19.5% (120 vs 149). No single-month event drove this briefing; the divergence between rising violent crime and falling property crime is the pattern to watch.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Uptown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Westlake
160 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Uptown's 167.
Open page →Pill Hill
175 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Uptown's 167.
Open page →Eastlake
177 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Uptown's 167.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Uptown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.