Elmhurst Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Elmhurst is a sprawling East Oakland neighborhood between 73rd and 98th Avenues, bordered by I-580 to the east. A mix of residential blocks, commercial corridors along International Boulevard, and the historic Elmhurst Library on Bancroft Avenue.
Seven categories moved in Elmhurst in March 2026 — four ran below trend in the current month, three registered as sustained structural shifts over the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is broadly downward, with no spikes or rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft is the most prominent signal: 570 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 861.7, and down 21.2% against the prior-year period of 723. Robbery and vandalism also ran below trend this month — robbery is down 29.6% year-over-year (152 vs. 216) and vandalism is down 21.8% (233 vs. 298). All other tracked categories were within their expected ranges, with sexual assault and arson the only two categories running above their prior-year levels.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 570 incidents — about 34% below the 862 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 152 incidents — about 35% below the 232 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 233 incidents — about 31% below the 336 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 301 incidents — about 47% below the 572 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 301, down 30% from 428 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 152, down 30% from 216 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 123, down 27% from 168 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Elmhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
West Oakland
368 incidents over the past 12 months — 202 below Elmhurst's 570.
Open page →Fruitvale
366 incidents over the past 12 months — 204 below Elmhurst's 570.
Open page →Maxwell Park
259 incidents over the past 12 months — 311 below Elmhurst's 570.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Elmhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.