Elmhurst Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Elmhurst is a sprawling East Oakland neighborhood between 73rd and 98th Avenues, bordered by I-580 to the east. A mix of residential blocks, commercial corridors along International Boulevard, and the historic Elmhurst Library on Bancroft Avenue.
Six categories moved in Elmhurst in March 2026 — four ran below trend on a single-month basis, two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward, concentrated in property crime and violent crime alike, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft is the headline mover: the trailing 12-month total sits at 571, down 21.0% against the prior year's 723 and well below the multi-year baseline of 861.7. Robbery follows a similar trajectory — 152 incidents in the current 12 months against 216 the year before, a 29.6% reduction — and vandalism is also running below trend, 234 vs. 298, down 21.5%. The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't just quiet months; the reductions in Elmhurst reflect a pattern that has been building across multiple reporting periods.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 571 incidents — about 34% below the 862 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 152 incidents — about 35% below the 232 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 234 incidents — about 30% below the 336 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 301 incidents — about 47% below the 572 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 301, down 30% from 427 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 152, down 30% from 216 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Elmhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
West Oakland
368 incidents over the past 12 months — 203 below Elmhurst's 571.
Open page →Fruitvale
367 incidents over the past 12 months — 204 below Elmhurst's 571.
Open page →Maxwell Park
259 incidents over the past 12 months — 312 below Elmhurst's 571.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Elmhurst has spiked other larceny historically (7 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 0% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 7 | 0% |
Each row shows Elmhurst's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Elmhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.