Elmhurst Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Elmhurst is a sprawling East Oakland neighborhood between 73rd and 98th Avenues, bordered by I-580 to the east. A mix of residential blocks, commercial corridors along International Boulevard, and the historic Elmhurst Library on Bancroft Avenue.
Eight categories moved in Elmhurst in August 2026, all downward. Five ran below their single-month trend and three registered as sustained, multi-month structural shifts. There were no spikes and no rare events. The dominant shape is broad-based decline across both violent and property crime.
Robbery is the strongest signal, down 32.8% over the trailing 12 months, 131 incidents against 195 in the prior year. Vandalism and motor vehicle theft also ran below trend this month. Aggravated assault, which fell 32.6% year-over-year, and burglary, down 29.2%, round out a picture where nearly every tracked category is meaningfully lower than it was twelve months ago.
Notable signals 5
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 131 incidents — about 43% below the 229 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 223 incidents — about 32% below the 328 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 547 incidents — about 35% below the 836 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 250 incidents — about 55% below the 551 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 77 incidents — about 52% below the 162 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 250, down 33% from 371 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 131, down 33% from 195 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 109, down 29% from 154 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Elmhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Elmhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.