Brookfield Village Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Brookfield Village is a Far East Oakland residential area near the bay shoreline, historically built around mid-century single-family housing and bordered by 98th Avenue and the San Leandro line. Includes industrial and commercial pockets along the East 12th and 105th Avenue corridors.
Seven categories moved in Brookfield Village in July 2026, three running below trend this month and four reflecting structural shifts that have persisted across the trailing 12 months. The dominant pattern is a broad, sustained reduction in property and violent crime, not a single quiet month but a longer repositioning across multiple categories.
Robbery, motor vehicle theft, and burglary are the three strongest below-trend signals this period. Robbery is the sharpest: 46 incidents in the current 12 months against 111 in the prior year, down 58.6%. Theft from vehicle is down 66.5% on the same basis, 57 incidents against 170, and other larceny has dropped 35.8%, from 327 to 210. The four sustained-shift signals reinforce that these are not month-to-month fluctuations. Homicide is the one category moving in the other direction, up 16.1% year over year, 36 incidents against 31, and sits outside the otherwise downward pattern across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 67% below the 140 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 197 incidents — about 55% below the 441 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 75 incidents — about 40% below the 126 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 57, down 67% from 170 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 46, down 59% from 111 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 210, down 36% from 327 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 197, down 29% from 277 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brookfield Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
San Antonio
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brookfield Village's 46.
Open page →Adams Point
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Brookfield Village's 46.
Open page →West Oakland
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brookfield Village's 46.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brookfield Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.