Brookfield Village Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Brookfield Village is a Far East Oakland residential area near the bay shoreline, historically built around mid-century single-family housing and bordered by 98th Avenue and the San Leandro line. Includes industrial and commercial pockets along the East 12th and 105th Avenue corridors.
Seven tracked signals across Brookfield Village this month — three one-month below-trend moves and four sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward: no category moved above trend, and the sustained-shift count indicates this isn't a single quiet month but a multi-month structural change across the neighborhood's crime profile.
Motor Vehicle Theft, Robbery, and Burglary each ran below trend in May 2026, with Motor Vehicle Theft the sharpest single signal — 207 incidents over the current 12 months against a multi-year baseline of 448.52. Robbery tells a similar structural story: 50 incidents in the current 12 months against 123 in the prior year, down 59.3%. Burglary is down 28.8% year-over-year, 84 vs 118. Every other tracked category also sits below its prior-year total, with nothing registering an above-trend move this period.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 207 incidents — about 54% below the 449 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 65% below the 141 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 84 incidents — about 34% below the 126 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 58, down 77% from 249 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 214, down 46% from 393 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 50, down 59% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 207, down 33% from 311 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brookfield Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Eastlake
209 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Brookfield Village's 207.
Open page →San Antonio
214 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Brookfield Village's 207.
Open page →Eastmont
215 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Brookfield Village's 207.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brookfield Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.