Brookfield Village Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Brookfield Village is a Far East Oakland residential area near the bay shoreline, historically built around mid-century single-family housing and bordered by 98th Avenue and the San Leandro line. Includes industrial and commercial pockets along the East 12th and 105th Avenue corridors.
Six categories moved in Brookfield Village this August, split evenly between single-month below-trend signals and multi-month sustained shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals in the mix.
Robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend this month, the three strongest signals of the period. The 12-month robbery total stands at 43, down 59.0% against the prior year's 105. Burglary follows a similar arc, 74 incidents against 103 a year ago, down 28.2%. Motor vehicle theft is down 22.9%, 195 incidents versus 253. The three sustained-shift signals indicate these are structural moves, not single-month noise.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 69% below the 139 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 74 incidents — about 41% below the 125 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 195 incidents — about 55% below the 437 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 66% from 157 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 59% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 201, down 36% from 313 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brookfield Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Melrose
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brookfield Village's 43.
Open page →San Antonio
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brookfield Village's 43.
Open page →Eastmont
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Brookfield Village's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brookfield Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.