Brookfield Village Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Brookfield Village is a Far East Oakland residential area near the bay shoreline, historically built around mid-century single-family housing and bordered by 98th Avenue and the San Leandro line. Includes industrial and commercial pockets along the East 12th and 105th Avenue corridors.
Eight categories moved in Brookfield Village this March — three one-month below-trend signals and five sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year decline across both violent and property crime, with no categories running above trend.
Motor vehicle theft leads the signal list: current 12-month volume is 212 against a baseline of 454.52, down 37.8% year-over-year. Robbery and burglary also registered below-trend signals, with robbery at 61 incidents against 118 the prior year (down 48.3%) and burglary at 80 against 143 (down 44.1%). The five sustained-shift signals — spread across categories including theft from vehicle, down 70.2% over 12 months — indicate these moves are structural, not a single quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 212 incidents — about 53% below the 455 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 57% below the 142 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 80 incidents — about 37% below the 127 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 70% from 262 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 232, down 45% from 424 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 212, down 38% from 341 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 61, down 48% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brookfield Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Eastmont
210 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brookfield Village's 212.
Open page →Eastlake
208 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brookfield Village's 212.
Open page →Laurel
218 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brookfield Village's 212.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brookfield Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.