Jingletown Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jingletown is a compact estuary-front neighborhood between the Park Street Bridge and the I-880 corridor, historically working-class and now home to artist studios and converted industrial spaces. Sits at the junction of the Lake Merritt Channel and the inner harbor.
August 2026 brought one tracked signal in Jingletown: aggravated assault running below trend. The rest of the month was structurally calm, with no spikes, sustained shifts, or rare events across any other category.
The aggravated assault reading fits a broader 12-month picture of falling violent crime in Jingletown. Robbery is down 51.5% over the past year (16 incidents vs. 33 prior), aggravated assault down 46.7% (16 vs. 30), and burglary down 52.9% (8 vs. 17). On the other side, vandalism has risen 52.6% year-over-year (29 vs. 19) and other larceny is up 17.6% (40 vs. 34), the two categories moving against the otherwise downward trend in this neighborhood.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 16 incidents — about 55% below the 35 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
How Jingletown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Westlake
17 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jingletown's 16.
Open page →Downtown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Jingletown's 16.
Open page →Jack London Square
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jingletown's 16.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jingletown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.