Jingletown Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jingletown is a compact estuary-front neighborhood between the Park Street Bridge and the I-880 corridor, historically working-class and now home to artist studios and converted industrial spaces. Sits at the junction of the Lake Merritt Channel and the inner harbor.
March 2026 was a quiet month in Jingletown. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across all eight crime buckets — making this one of the calmer months in the recent record.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Robbery stands at 19 incidents against 46 in the prior year, a 58.7% reduction, while Motor Vehicle Theft fell from 52 to 45, down 13.5%. On the other side, Theft from Vehicle edged up 22.2% (11 vs. 9) and Burglary rose 15.4% (15 vs. 13) — both small absolute counts, but directionally opposite to the broader declines. Everything else, including Aggravated Assault at a flat 25 incidents year over year, moved within a narrow range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Jingletown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Piedmont Pines
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above Jingletown's 35.
Open page →Clinton
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Jingletown's 35.
Open page →Oakmore Highlands
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Jingletown's 35.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jingletown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.