Jingletown Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jingletown is a compact estuary-front neighborhood between the Park Street Bridge and the I-880 corridor, historically working-class and now home to artist studios and converted industrial spaces. Sits at the junction of the Lake Merritt Channel and the inner harbor.
One category moved in Jingletown this July briefing: aggravated assault, running below its multi-year trend. A single below-trend signal across all tracked categories is about as quiet as a month gets.
Aggravated assault is down 20.0% over the trailing 12 months, 20 incidents against 25 in the prior year. The broader violent-crime picture reinforces that direction, with robbery at 17 incidents vs. 32 a year ago, down 46.9%, and homicide at 7 vs. 11, down 36.4%. Property categories tell a different story: other larceny rose 50.0% year-over-year (45 vs. 30), and theft from vehicle is up 37.5% (11 vs. 8), though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 44% below the 36 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Jingletown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Glenview
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jingletown's 20.
Open page →Downtown
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jingletown's 20.
Open page →Adams Point
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Jingletown's 20.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jingletown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.