Jingletown Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jingletown is a compact estuary-front neighborhood between the Park Street Bridge and the I-880 corridor, historically working-class and now home to artist studios and converted industrial spaces. Sits at the junction of the Lake Merritt Channel and the inner harbor.
May 2026 produced a single signal in Jingletown: aggravated assault running below its multi-year baseline. The rest of the tracked categories fell within expected ranges, making this a narrow month with one structural move rather than broad movement across the neighborhood.
Aggravated assault sits at 22 incidents over the current 12 months, down 8.3% against the prior year's 24 and meaningfully below the multi-year baseline of 36.1. Theft from vehicle and other larceny both rose year-over-year — 160.0% and 21.2% respectively — but neither crossed the signal threshold this month. Robbery's 12-month total of 19 is down 44.1% from 34 in the prior period, continuing a steep multi-year decline that predates this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 39% below the 36 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Jingletown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Adams Point
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jingletown's 22.
Open page →Temescal
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jingletown's 22.
Open page →Financial District
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Jingletown's 22.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jingletown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.