Oakmore Highlands Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Oakmore Highlands is a foothill neighborhood between Park Boulevard and the Mountain Boulevard ridge, organized around the Sausal Creek watershed and Park Boulevard. Single-family housing on sloped, wooded streets, with the Oakmore Pool and Sausal Creek Trail as community anchors.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Oakmore Highlands: a sustained, multi-month structural decline in motor vehicle theft. With just one tracked signal this month and no spikes, the picture is notably calm across property crime categories.
Motor vehicle theft is down 41.1% over the trailing 12 months against the prior year, 43 incidents vs. 73, and the sustained-shift classification means this is not a one-month dip but a structural move holding across multiple periods. Burglary and theft from vehicle also fell sharply year-over-year, down 45.0% and 63.3% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. The one category moving in the opposite direction is other larceny, up 32.1% on a 12-month basis, 70 incidents vs. 53, worth watching even if it did not register as an anomaly this period.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 41% from 73 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Oakmore Highlands compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Jingletown
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Oakmore Highlands's 43.
Open page →Clinton
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Oakmore Highlands's 43.
Open page →Upper Rockridge
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Oakmore Highlands's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oakmore Highlands, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.