Eastmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Eastmont is an East Oakland residential and commercial district centered on the Eastmont Town Center on MacArthur Boulevard, between the Mills College campus and 73rd Avenue. Predominantly single-family housing along sloped streets stretching toward the foothills.
Three tracked signals surfaced in Eastmont this March — two below-trend drops and one sustained shift. The shape is predominantly downward, with motor vehicle theft driving both the single-month drop and the longer structural story, and robbery adding a second below-trend read.
Motor vehicle theft sits at 210 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 25.0% against the prior 12-month total of 280 — and the sustained-shift signal marks this as a multi-month structural move, not just a quiet March. Robbery ran below trend as well, with 36 incidents in the current 12 months against 56 prior, a 35.7% year-over-year reduction. Every other tracked category — including aggravated assault, vandalism, and other larceny — stayed within range this month.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 210 incidents — about 39% below the 344 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 47% below the 68 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 210, down 25% from 280 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Eastmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Brookfield Village
212 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Eastmont's 210.
Open page →Eastlake
208 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Eastmont's 210.
Open page →San Antonio
203 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Eastmont's 210.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Eastmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.