Eastmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Eastmont is an East Oakland residential and commercial district centered on the Eastmont Town Center on MacArthur Boulevard, between the Mills College campus and 73rd Avenue. Predominantly single-family housing along sloped streets stretching toward the foothills.
Three categories ran below trend in Eastmont this August, all on the property and violent crime side. Robbery, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism each registered below-trend signals, and no category moved in the other direction. The month's shape is uniformly downward across a narrow but consistent set of movers.
Robbery is the strongest of the three signals. The trailing 12-month count stands at 40, against 56 in the prior 12 months, a 28.6% reduction year-over-year. Vandalism shows a similar multi-year pull: 79 incidents over the current 12 months against 105 in the prior period, down 24.8%. Motor vehicle theft is comparatively flat at the 12-month level, 210 vs 214, but still registered a below-trend signal in the current month. Everything else in Eastmont, including aggravated assault, burglary, and other larceny, came in within its normal range.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 41% below the 68 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 210 incidents — about 37% below the 334 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 79 incidents — about 46% below the 147 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Eastmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Eastmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.