Eastmont Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Eastmont is an East Oakland residential and commercial district centered on the Eastmont Town Center on MacArthur Boulevard, between the Mills College campus and 73rd Avenue. Predominantly single-family housing along sloped streets stretching toward the foothills.
Four categories ran below trend in Eastmont this May — all four pointing the same direction. The shape is a broad, property-and-violent-crime-wide pullback, not a single outlier: robbery, motor vehicle theft, and theft from vehicle all registered below-trend signals, with a fourth category rounding out the drop count.
Robbery is the sharpest move: 35 incidents over the current 12 months against 58 in the prior year, down 39.7%. Motor vehicle theft fell to 215 from 258 — a 16.7% decline — and theft from vehicle is down 31.9%, from 72 to 49. Every other tracked category came in within its expected range, making the four drops the only story this month.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 35 incidents — about 49% below the 69 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 215 incidents — about 37% below the 341 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 49 incidents — about 50% below the 97 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 41% below the 150 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Eastmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Eastmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.