Jack London Square Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jack London Square is an estuary-front district on the Oakland Inner Harbor, mixed-use and largely redeveloped from its 19th-century shipping-and-warehouse origins. Anchored by the Jack London Square waterfront, the Amtrak station, and the historic Heinold's First and Last Chance Saloon.
One category moved in Jack London Square this month: vandalism registered a below-trend signal against its multi-year baseline. Everything else — robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, aggravated assault — ran within normal range and produced no additional signals.
The 12-month vandalism total stands at 95 incidents, down 10.4% against the prior year's 106. The broader property crime picture leans downward over that same window: theft from vehicle is down 14.8% (287 vs 337), burglary down 13.3% (72 vs 83), and robbery down 30.8% (27 vs 39). Aggravated assault is the one counter-move, up 40.0% year-over-year at 14 incidents against 10 — a small absolute count, but the only category running above its prior-year pace.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 95 incidents — about 73% below the 350 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jack London Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Financial District
94 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Jack London Square's 95.
Open page →Uptown
94 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Jack London Square's 95.
Open page →Eastmont
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jack London Square's 95.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jack London Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.