Jack London Square Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jack London Square is an estuary-front district on the Oakland Inner Harbor, mixed-use and largely redeveloped from its 19th-century shipping-and-warehouse origins. Anchored by the Jack London Square waterfront, the Amtrak station, and the historic Heinold's First and Last Chance Saloon.
May 2026 produced no tracked signals in Jack London Square — zero categories crossed an anomaly threshold this month. That makes it a genuinely quiet briefing, with all nine tracked categories landing within expected ranges for the period.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Theft from vehicle is down 23.2% against the prior year (252 incidents vs. 328), and burglary is off 26.4% (64 vs. 87). Aggravated assault is the one category moving the other direction — up 45.5% over the trailing 12 months, 16 incidents against 11 the year before — though neither figure is large in absolute terms. Homicide is down 50.0% year-over-year (7 vs. 14), and robbery is down 29.7% (26 vs. 37). No single-month movement was large enough to register this period; the story is in the longer trend lines, not in May itself.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jack London Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Eastlake
184 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Jack London Square's 191.
Open page →Pill Hill
176 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Jack London Square's 191.
Open page →Rockridge
210 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Jack London Square's 191.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jack London Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.