Jack London Square Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jack London Square is an estuary-front district on the Oakland Inner Harbor, mixed-use and largely redeveloped from its 19th-century shipping-and-warehouse origins. Anchored by the Jack London Square waterfront, the Amtrak station, and the historic Heinold's First and Last Chance Saloon.
August 2026 produced a single structural signal in Jack London Square: a sustained, multi-month shift in theft from vehicle. With only one category clearing the anomaly threshold this month, the story is less about breadth and more about depth. The rest of the tracked categories were within their usual ranges.
Theft from vehicle is down 33.7% against the prior 12 months, 216 incidents in the current window against 326 in the year before. That gap is large enough to qualify as a structural shift rather than a one-month dip, meaning the lower rate has held across multiple months. Robbery and homicide are also running well below prior-year levels, down 28.6% and 27.3% respectively over the same 12-month span, reinforcing the broader downward trend in serious property and violent crime even though neither crossed the signal threshold this period.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 216, down 34% from 326 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jack London Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Financial District
219 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Jack London Square's 216.
Open page →Uptown
204 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Jack London Square's 216.
Open page →Westlake
174 incidents over the past 12 months — 42 below Jack London Square's 216.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jack London Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.