Jack London Square Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jack London Square is an estuary-front district on the Oakland Inner Harbor, mixed-use and largely redeveloped from its 19th-century shipping-and-warehouse origins. Anchored by the Jack London Square waterfront, the Amtrak station, and the historic Heinold's First and Last Chance Saloon.
Jack London Square had a structurally calm July 2026. Only one category crossed the anomaly threshold, theft from vehicle, and it registered as a sustained shift downward, meaning the decline is multi-month and structural rather than a single quiet period.
Theft from vehicle is down 30.7% over the trailing 12 months, 224 incidents against 323 in the year before. Every other tracked category, including burglary (down 26.1%), vandalism (down 25.2%), and homicide (down 50.0% to 6 incidents), moved in the same downward direction but stayed within normal range. Aggravated assault and other larceny are the two categories running above prior-year levels, at 15.4% and 13.2% respectively, though neither produced an anomaly signal this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 224, down 31% from 323 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jack London Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Uptown
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Jack London Square's 224.
Open page →Financial District
234 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Jack London Square's 224.
Open page →Westlake
190 incidents over the past 12 months — 34 below Jack London Square's 224.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jack London Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.