Jack London Square Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Jack London Square is an estuary-front district on the Oakland Inner Harbor, mixed-use and largely redeveloped from its 19th-century shipping-and-warehouse origins. Anchored by the Jack London Square waterfront, the Amtrak station, and the historic Heinold's First and Last Chance Saloon.
Jack London Square had a narrow month by any measure — one tracked signal across nine monitored categories, and it was a below-trend move in vandalism. The broader picture is structural: homicide, robbery, burglary, and theft from vehicle are all running lower on a 12-month basis, while aggravated assault is the one category moving in the opposite direction.
Vandalism is down 11.3% over the trailing 12 months — 94 incidents against 106 in the prior year — and the current-month read came in below trend, extending that directional pattern. Aggravated assault is the outlier worth tracking: 14 incidents in the current 12 months against 10 in the year before, a 40.0% increase. Robbery and homicide both continue lower, down 30.8% and 38.5% respectively over the same window. Everything else — burglary, theft from vehicle, vandalism, motor vehicle theft — held below or near prior-year levels.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 94 incidents — about 73% below the 350 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jack London Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Financial District
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Jack London Square's 94.
Open page →Uptown
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Jack London Square's 94.
Open page →Eastmont
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Jack London Square's 94.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jack London Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.