San Antonio Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
San Antonio is an inner East Oakland neighborhood along East 14th/International Boulevard between 14th and 28th Avenues, just south of Lake Merritt. A mixed residential and commercial corridor with a high concentration of small businesses and pre-war apartment buildings.
Four categories moved in San Antonio this May — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across violent crime, with robbery and aggravated assault both appearing in the top signals and no spikes or rare events anywhere in the mix.
Robbery is the sharpest mover: 55 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 89 in the prior year, a -38.2% decline that also registers as a sustained shift, not just a quiet month. Aggravated assault runs in the same direction, down -28.3% year-over-year to 66 incidents from 92. The rest of the tracked categories — burglary, theft from vehicle, vandalism, motor vehicle theft — all finished the 12-month window below their prior-year levels as well, with theft from vehicle down -48.4% and sexual assault down -72.7%, though neither crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 60% below the 138 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 66 incidents — about 53% below the 139 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 48% from 64 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 38% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How San Antonio compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Eastlake
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below San Antonio's 55.
Open page →Chinatown
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below San Antonio's 55.
Open page →Brookfield Village
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below San Antonio's 55.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for San Antonio, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.