San Antonio Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
San Antonio is an inner East Oakland neighborhood along East 14th/International Boulevard between 14th and 28th Avenues, just south of Lake Merritt. A mixed residential and commercial corridor with a high concentration of small businesses and pre-war apartment buildings.
Three tracked signals surfaced in San Antonio this July: two single-month below-trend reads and one sustained shift pointing to a longer structural move. The sustained shift is in robbery, and it reinforces the single-month drop signal in the same category, making robbery the clearest story of the briefing. Aggravated assault also ran below trend this month, adding a second violent-crime category to the picture.
Robbery's 12-month total is now 47, down from 78 in the prior year, a 39.7% reduction. Aggravated assault tracked a similar direction, 59 incidents over the current 12 months against 90 the year before, a 34.4% decline. Everything else in San Antonio, including motor vehicle theft at 201 incidents, other larceny at 154, and vandalism at 57, remained within range and generated no notable signals this month.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 47 incidents — about 65% below the 136 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 57% below the 137 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 40% from 78 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How San Antonio compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Adams Point
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above San Antonio's 47.
Open page →Brookfield Village
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below San Antonio's 47.
Open page →West Oakland
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above San Antonio's 47.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for San Antonio, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.