Dimond District Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
The Dimond District is a foothill neighborhood along MacArthur Boulevard at the I-580 transition, named for a 19th-century stagecoach stop. Organized around the Dimond Park natural area and a small commercial strip with cafes and a public library.
Three categories moved in Dimond District this March — all three sustained shifts, all pointed downward. This is not a single quiet month; it is a structural pattern, with theft from vehicle, other larceny, and motor vehicle theft each running below their multi-year baselines across the trailing 12 months. No spikes, no rare events, no streak breaks. The month's shape is a broad, durable property-crime decline.
The numbers behind those shifts are substantial. Theft from vehicle is down 45.4% against the prior 12 months — 71 incidents vs. 130. Other larceny is down 26.7% (231 vs. 315), and motor vehicle theft is down 27.7% (230 vs. 318). Every other tracked category also ran below the prior year, with robbery off 36.2% and sexual assault off 53.8%, though neither crossed the threshold for a distinct signal this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 71, down 45% from 130 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 230, down 28% from 318 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 231, down 27% from 315 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Dimond District compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Jack London Square
237 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Dimond District's 230.
Open page →Laurel
217 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Dimond District's 230.
Open page →Melrose
244 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Dimond District's 230.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Dimond District, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.