Dimond District Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
The Dimond District is a foothill neighborhood along MacArthur Boulevard at the I-580 transition, named for a 19th-century stagecoach stop. Organized around the Dimond Park natural area and a small commercial strip with cafes and a public library.
Three signals surfaced in Dimond District this May — one single-month below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern is decisively downward across property crime, with the same categories driving both the one-month and multi-month readings.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest signal: the current 12-month total of 56 is down 56.9% against the prior 12 months (130), a reduction that shows up both as a one-month drop and as a sustained shift. Other larceny is the second sustained shift — 224 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 313 the year before, a 28.4% reduction. Every other tracked category in the neighborhood was within normal range for the month.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 56 incidents — about 50% below the 111 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 57% from 130 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 224, down 28% from 313 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Dimond District compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brookfield Village
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Dimond District's 56.
Open page →Eastlake
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Dimond District's 56.
Open page →Eastmont
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Dimond District's 56.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Dimond District, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.