Dimond District Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
The Dimond District is a foothill neighborhood along MacArthur Boulevard at the I-580 transition, named for a 19th-century stagecoach stop. Organized around the Dimond Park natural area and a small commercial strip with cafes and a public library.
Three tracked signals surfaced in Dimond District this August, two single-month below-trend readings and one sustained structural shift. The shape of the month is broadly downward, concentrated in theft from vehicle and homicide, with the theft-from-vehicle pattern now showing evidence of a longer-term move, not just a quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the dominant story: the trailing 12 months show 41 incidents against 120 in the prior year, a 65.8% reduction. Homicide also ran below trend this month, with the 12-month total at 18 against 37 in the prior period, down 51.4%. Burglary is the counterpoint, up 26.2% year over year (77 incidents vs. 61), and motor vehicle theft is also above prior-year levels at 257 vs. 217, a 18.4% rise. Everything else, aggravated assault, other larceny, vandalism, and sexual assault, moved modestly and stayed within range.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 63% below the 112 average from prior years.
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 18 incidents — about 50% below the 36 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 41, down 66% from 120 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Dimond District compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Upper Rockridge
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Dimond District's 41.
Open page →Longfellow
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Dimond District's 41.
Open page →Melrose
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Dimond District's 41.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Dimond District, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.