Fruitvale Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Fruitvale is an inner East Oakland neighborhood organized around the Fruitvale BART station, the Fruitvale Public Market plaza, and the International Boulevard commercial corridor. Historically agricultural — its name comes from the orchards that defined the area before 20th-century urbanization.
Eight categories moved in Fruitvale in March 2026 — three one-month below-trend signals and five sustained structural shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The dominant shape of the month is broad, multi-category decline across both violent and property crime.
Robbery is the sharpest signal: the current 12-month total is 123 incidents, down 55.6% against the prior year's 277 and well below the multi-year baseline. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny both ran below trend as well, with the trailing 12 months at 366 and 377 respectively — down 26.4% and 13.9% against their prior-year counts. The five sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't one-month dips; the volume reductions across burglary, theft from vehicle, and vandalism have been building across multiple periods.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 123 incidents — about 63% below the 329 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 366 incidents — about 37% below the 576 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 377 incidents — about 21% below the 476 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 123, down 56% from 277 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 366, down 26% from 497 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 96, down 38% from 155 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 172, down 30% from 246 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Fruitvale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Elmhurst
152 incidents over the past 12 months — 29 above Fruitvale's 123.
Open page →Melrose
81 incidents over the past 12 months — 42 below Fruitvale's 123.
Open page →Brookfield Village
61 incidents over the past 12 months — 62 below Fruitvale's 123.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fruitvale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.