Golden Gate Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Golden Gate is a West Oakland neighborhood between San Pablo and Telegraph Avenues along the Berkeley border. Mixed residential and small-commercial blocks, named for the Golden Gate train depot that once stood at 59th and San Pablo.
Golden Gate had a quiet March 2026. Only one category crossed the anomaly threshold — vandalism — and the flag mix reflects that: one below-trend signal, nothing else out of range.
Vandalism's trailing 12 months came in at 41 incidents against a baseline of 77.38, a structural gap that makes this the clearest mover in the neighborhood's data this period. Robbery and other larceny both show meaningful 12-month declines — down 42.9% (12 vs. 21) and 26.9% (106 vs. 145) respectively — though neither generated a signal this month. Aggravated assault and burglary are the categories moving in the other direction, up 14.3% and 19.5% over the trailing year, but neither broke out of normal range this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 47% below the 77 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Golden Gate compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Millsmont
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Golden Gate's 41.
Open page →Seminary Park
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Golden Gate's 41.
Open page →Downtown
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Golden Gate's 41.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Golden Gate, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.