Golden Gate Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Golden Gate is a West Oakland neighborhood between San Pablo and Telegraph Avenues along the Berkeley border. Mixed residential and small-commercial blocks, named for the Golden Gate train depot that once stood at 59th and San Pablo.
August 2026 produced two signals in Golden Gate, both pointing the same direction. Theft from vehicle registered as a single-month below-trend signal and as a sustained structural shift, meaning the decline is not a one-month dip but a multi-month pattern embedded in the trailing 12-month window. The rest of the tracked categories were within their normal ranges.
The 12-month theft-from-vehicle total stands at 22 incidents, down from 45 in the prior 12 months, a 51.1% reduction year over year. Burglary tells a similar structural story: 18 incidents in the current 12 months against 73 the year before, a 75.3% drop, though that category carries no active signal this month. Other larceny is also lower, 90 vs 120, down 25.0%. On the other side, vandalism is up 21.1% over the same period and aggravated assault is up 20.0%, neither carrying an active signal this month but both worth tracking as the property-crime picture continues to improve.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 58% below the 53 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 51% from 45 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Golden Gate compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Lockwood Gardens
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Golden Gate's 22.
Open page →Millsmont
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Golden Gate's 22.
Open page →Seminary Park
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Golden Gate's 22.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Golden Gate, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.