Piedmont Pines Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Piedmont Pines is a hills neighborhood along Skyline Boulevard near Joaquin Miller and Redwood Regional parks. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on heavily wooded, sloped streets at the city's eastern edge.
Four categories moved in Piedmont Pines this March — one drop, one spike, one sustained shift, and one streak break. The mix is split: property crime is broadly down over the trailing 12 months, but other larceny is running above its multi-year baseline, and aggravated assault returned after a long absence.
Burglary is the clearest structural story: 5 incidents over the current 12 months against 24 in the prior year, a -79.2% move that reflects a sustained multi-year reset, not a single quiet month. Theft from vehicle and vandalism tell a similar story — down -54.2% and -61.5% respectively over the same window. Against that backdrop, other larceny stands out: 53 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline of 39.73, the largest above-trend signal this briefing. The aggravated assault streak break is low-volume but worth tracking as a first reappearance.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 53 incidents — about 33% above the 40 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
First incident since February 2024 — a 2-year gap ended this month.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 5 incidents — about 85% below the 34 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 54% from 48 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Piedmont Pines compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Clinton
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Piedmont Pines's 53.
Open page →Oakmore Highlands
59 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Piedmont Pines's 53.
Open page →Montclair
69 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Piedmont Pines's 53.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Piedmont Pines has spiked other larceny historically (8 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 62.5% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 8 | 62.5% |
Each row shows Piedmont Pines's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Piedmont Pines, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.