Pill Hill Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Pill Hill is a compact medical district between Broadway and Telegraph Avenue, named for its cluster of hospitals — Kaiser, Alta Bates Summit, Highland, and Children's — alongside their associated medical office buildings. Includes the Mosswood Park natural area.
Nine categories moved in Pill Hill this month — six ran below their single-month trend and three registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across violent and property crime alike, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle, aggravated assault, and robbery all came in below trend this month. Theft from vehicle carries the most structural weight: the trailing 12-month total sits at 113 incidents, down 34.7% against the prior year's 173, and well below the baseline mean of 241.43. Robbery is down 37.0% over the same 12-month window (34 vs. 54), and vandalism — one of the sustained-shift categories — is down 40.7% year over year. Everything else tracked this month landed within those same downward bounds.
Notable signals 6
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 113 incidents — about 53% below the 241 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 31% below the 74 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 47% below the 64 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 64% below the 201 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 187 incidents — about 35% below the 288 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 58 incidents — about 44% below the 103 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 73, down 41% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 113, down 35% from 173 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 28% from 206 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pill Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Downtown
118 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Pill Hill's 113.
Open page →Grand Lake
127 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Pill Hill's 113.
Open page →Elmhurst
98 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Pill Hill's 113.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pill Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.