Pill Hill Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Pill Hill is a compact medical district between Broadway and Telegraph Avenue, named for its cluster of hospitals — Kaiser, Alta Bates Summit, Highland, and Children's — alongside their associated medical office buildings. Includes the Mosswood Park natural area.
Six categories moved in Pill Hill this July, all of them downward. Five registered as single-month below-trend signals and one as a sustained structural shift, a mix that points to broad, multi-category decline rather than any isolated quiet patch.
Theft from vehicle leads the signals, with 85 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 180 in the prior year, a 52.8% reduction. Robbery is also well below trend, 32 incidents against 50 in the prior 12 months, down 36.0%. Aggravated assault followed the same direction, down 11.9% to 52 incidents. Sexual assault is the one category moving the other way, up 27.8% to 23 incidents over the trailing year, and sits outside the otherwise downward pattern across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 5
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 85 incidents — about 64% below the 236 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 49% below the 63 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 28% below the 72 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 175 incidents — about 38% below the 281 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 58 incidents — about 43% below the 102 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 53% from 180 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pill Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Downtown
80 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Pill Hill's 85.
Open page →Elmhurst
79 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Pill Hill's 85.
Open page →Fruitvale
77 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Pill Hill's 85.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pill Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.