Financial District Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
The Financial District is Oakland's downtown core, centered around Broadway between 14th and 20th Streets and defined by mid-century office towers and historic banking buildings. Includes the Tribune Tower, Frank Ogawa Plaza, and the heaviest concentration of Oakland's Class A office space.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Oakland's Financial District: burglary has shifted structurally upward, not as a one-month anomaly but as a multi-month pattern now embedded in the trailing 12-month totals. Every other tracked category fell within its normal range, leaving this one sustained shift as the defining feature of the month.
Burglary reached 62 incidents over the current 12-month window against 33 in the prior year, an 87.9% increase that reflects a durable change in volume, not a noisy month. Theft from vehicle and other larceny moved in the opposite direction, down 19.5% and 29.7% respectively against the prior 12 months, which partly offsets the property-crime picture. Aggravated assault also rose sharply on a 12-month basis, 27 incidents against 13, though it did not cross the anomaly threshold this period.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 62, up 88% from 33 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Financial District compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Pill Hill
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Financial District's 62.
Open page →Eastlake
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Financial District's 62.
Open page →Jack London Square
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Financial District's 62.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Financial District, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.