Financial District Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
The Financial District is Oakland's downtown core, centered around Broadway between 14th and 20th Streets and defined by mid-century office towers and historic banking buildings. Includes the Tribune Tower, Frank Ogawa Plaza, and the heaviest concentration of Oakland's Class A office space.
Two categories moved in Financial District this month — both below trend. Robbery and theft from vehicle each registered drops against their baselines, making this a narrow but consistent signal: the month's movement is concentrated in property-adjacent and violent-property crime running below their typical rates.
Robbery's 12-month total stands at 14 incidents, down 41.7% against the prior year's 24 and well below the multi-year baseline of 47.52. Theft from vehicle follows the same direction — 224 incidents over the current 12 months against 297 in the prior period, a 24.6% reduction. Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault (up 144.4% year-over-year, 22 vs. 9), fell within the normal range for this month's signal thresholds and did not cross the anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 71% below the 48 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 224 incidents — about 66% below the 658 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Financial District compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Longfellow
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Financial District's 14.
Open page →Millsmont
13 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Financial District's 14.
Open page →Upper Rockridge
13 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Financial District's 14.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Financial District, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.