Financial District Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
The Financial District is Oakland's downtown core, centered around Broadway between 14th and 20th Streets and defined by mid-century office towers and historic banking buildings. Includes the Tribune Tower, Frank Ogawa Plaza, and the heaviest concentration of Oakland's Class A office space.
May 2026 produced no tracked signals in Financial District — zero categories crossed any anomaly threshold this month. The dominant story in the underlying data is a split between violent and property crime: aggravated assault is up 140.0% over the prior 12 months (24 incidents vs. 10), while most property categories are running below their prior-year levels.
Theft from vehicle is down 23.3% against the prior 12 months — 237 incidents vs. 309 — the largest absolute volume shift in the neighborhood. Motor vehicle theft and robbery are also below prior-year levels, down 17.9% and 31.8% respectively. Burglary is the exception among property categories, up 19.1% (56 vs. 47), though no single month in the current window crossed the threshold for a one-month signal.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Financial District compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Seminary Park
91 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Financial District's 93.
Open page →Upper Rockridge
90 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Financial District's 93.
Open page →Downtown
87 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Financial District's 93.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Financial District, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.