Seminary Park Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Seminary Park is an East Oakland residential neighborhood near the Seminary Avenue and Foothill Boulevard intersection, named for the eponymous public space. Predominantly single-family housing on sloped streets toward the hills.
Two categories moved in Seminary Park this July 2026 briefing, both running below trend. The shape of the month is narrow but consistent with a broader downward pattern across the neighborhood's crime mix.
Vandalism and robbery are the two below-trend signals. Vandalism's 12-month total sits at 41 incidents against 53 in the prior year, a decline of 22.6%. Robbery is down 18.2% over the same 12-month window, 18 incidents against 22. The broader category picture reinforces the direction: burglary is down 35.0%, other larceny down 31.1%, and homicide down 25.0% year over year. Motor vehicle theft is the one counter-move, up 15.0% to 123 incidents, the only category running above its prior-year pace.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 40% below the 68 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 18 incidents — about 49% below the 36 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
How Seminary Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Downtown
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Seminary Park's 41.
Open page →Golden Gate
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Seminary Park's 41.
Open page →Millsmont
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Seminary Park's 41.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Seminary Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.