Seminary Park Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Seminary Park is an East Oakland residential neighborhood near the Seminary Avenue and Foothill Boulevard intersection, named for the eponymous public space. Predominantly single-family housing on sloped streets toward the hills.
Two categories moved in Seminary Park this month — both below trend. Vandalism and robbery each registered drops, with no spikes, rare events, or sustained shifts in the mix. The signal count is low, and the overall shape of the month is quietly downward.
Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals: the current 12-month total stands at 46 incidents against a baseline of 69.67, and down 22.0% against the prior 12 months (59 incidents). Robbery ran below trend as well, with 20 incidents over the trailing year compared to 22 the year before, a 9.1% decline. Every other tracked category — homicide, aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft — fell within its expected range this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 34% below the 70 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 46% below the 37 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
How Seminary Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Downtown
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Seminary Park's 46.
Open page →Maxwell Park
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Seminary Park's 46.
Open page →Golden Gate
41 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Seminary Park's 46.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Seminary Park has spiked other larceny historically (12 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 75% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 12 | 75% |
Each row shows Seminary Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Oakland); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Seminary Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.