Seminary Park Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Seminary Park is an East Oakland residential neighborhood near the Seminary Avenue and Foothill Boulevard intersection, named for the eponymous public space. Predominantly single-family housing on sloped streets toward the hills.
Two categories moved in Seminary Park this March — both ran below trend. The shape is narrow but consistent: vandalism and robbery each registered drop signals against a broader backdrop where most tracked categories held within their usual ranges.
Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals. The trailing 12-month total sits at 46 incidents, down 22.0% against the prior 12 months (59). Robbery also ran below trend — 20 incidents over the current 12 months against 22 in the prior period, a 9.1% decline. Burglary and aggravated assault show steeper 12-month declines — 60.7% and 23.6% respectively — though neither crossed the threshold for a drop signal this month, meaning those moves are already baked into the longer baseline. Theft from vehicle and other larceny both edged above their prior-year levels, but neither generated a signal.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 34% below the 70 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 46% below the 37 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
How Seminary Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Downtown
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Seminary Park's 46.
Open page →Maxwell Park
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Seminary Park's 46.
Open page →Golden Gate
41 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Seminary Park's 46.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Seminary Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.