West Oakland Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
West Oakland is the area west of I-980 and north of the Inner Harbor, encompassing the West Oakland BART station, the Port of Oakland industrial belt, and the historic Mandela Parkway corridor. A mix of Victorian-era residential blocks, light-industrial parcels, and a recent wave of mixed-use redevelopment.
Five signals across West Oakland in March 2026 — two one-month below-trend moves and three sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward: property and violent crime categories have been contracting for long enough that three of the five signals reflect multi-month structural change, not just a quiet calendar month.
Burglary is the sharpest single-month move, running well below its 12-month baseline of 169.97 incidents — the current 12-month total stands at 82, down 43.8% against the prior year's 146. Robbery also registered a below-trend signal this month and carries its own sustained-shift signal alongside it, with 52 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 89 the year before, a 41.6% reduction. Across the broader category mix, homicide is down 27.1% year-over-year and theft from vehicle is down 28.3% — the declines are distributed across both violent and property crime, not concentrated in one area.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 82 incidents — about 52% below the 170 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 44% below the 94 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 82, down 44% from 146 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 172, down 28% from 240 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 42% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How West Oakland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Brookfield Village
80 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below West Oakland's 82.
Open page →Laurel
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below West Oakland's 82.
Open page →Glenview
74 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below West Oakland's 82.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Oakland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.