Longfellow Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Longfellow is a North Oakland neighborhood between Stanford Avenue and the Berkeley border, organized around Longfellow Middle School and the Hoover-Foster commercial strip on San Pablo Avenue. Predominantly small Victorian and pre-war single-family housing.
Two categories moved in Longfellow this August, and they point in the same direction. Other larceny registered a one-month below-trend signal, while burglary shows a structural, multi-month shift downward. The shape of the month is narrow but consistent: both signals are on the downside, and no category spiked.
Burglary is the more significant story in the 12-month view, falling to 28 incidents from 61 in the prior year, a 54.1% reduction that reflects a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Other larceny came in at 143 over the trailing 12 months, down 16.9% from 172 the year before. Robbery, aggravated assault, and vandalism also ran lower year-over-year, though none crossed the signal threshold. Every other tracked category was within its normal range.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 143 incidents — about 24% below the 189 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 54% from 61 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Longfellow compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Grand Lake
139 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Longfellow's 143.
Open page →Millsmont
139 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Longfellow's 143.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
138 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Longfellow's 143.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Longfellow, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.