Longfellow Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Longfellow is a North Oakland neighborhood between Stanford Avenue and the Berkeley border, organized around Longfellow Middle School and the Hoover-Foster commercial strip on San Pablo Avenue. Predominantly small Victorian and pre-war single-family housing.
Two categories moved in Longfellow this July, and they point in the same direction. Other larceny registered a one-month below-trend signal, the strongest single signal this briefing, while burglary is showing a sustained multi-month structural shift downward, not just a quiet period but a change in the underlying pattern.
Burglary is the sharper story in the 12-month numbers: 31 incidents in the current trailing year against 60 in the prior year, down 48.3%. Other larceny sits at 151 incidents against 171 the year before, a 11.7% decline. Robbery and homicide are also down over the same window, 34.5% and 22.2% respectively, though neither crossed a signal threshold this month. Motor vehicle theft is the exception, up 13.8% year over year, and theft from vehicle edged up 9.8%, but neither generated a signal in July. The broader read is a neighborhood where violent and property crime is broadly lower than a year ago, with two categories generating enough movement this month to stand out from the rest.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 151 incidents — about 20% below the 189 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 31, down 48% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Longfellow compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Melrose
151 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Longfellow's 151.
Open page →Grand Lake
149 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Longfellow's 151.
Open page →San Antonio
154 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Longfellow's 151.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Longfellow, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.