Longfellow Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Longfellow is a North Oakland neighborhood between Stanford Avenue and the Berkeley border, organized around Longfellow Middle School and the Hoover-Foster commercial strip on San Pablo Avenue. Predominantly small Victorian and pre-war single-family housing.
May 2026 produced a single signal in Longfellow: a below-trend month for other larceny. Every other tracked category — robbery, burglary, aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, vandalism — came in within normal range.
Other larceny's 12-month total sits at 149 incidents, down 15.8% against the prior 12 months (177) and below the multi-year baseline of 189.93. That longer-run decline is the more structural story here. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft ran in the other direction — up 14.0% and 4.1% year-over-year, respectively — but neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 149 incidents — about 22% below the 190 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Longfellow compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Melrose
153 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Longfellow's 149.
Open page →Uptown
156 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Longfellow's 149.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
140 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Longfellow's 149.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Longfellow, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.