San Francisco Crime Rate Trends
The city, by the numbers we publish each month: 41 neighborhoods, 10 incident categories, twelve months of trailing comparison. Browse the rankings, scan the multi-year trends, or open a neighborhood-level breakdown.
Noe Valley other larceny is the sharpest single signal this month — a fresh spike standing out against a briefing otherwise dominated by below-trend readings. It is the lone spike in the top five; the remaining four entries are all drops, spread across vandalism, burglary, and motor vehicle theft in South of Market, Hayes Valley, Portola, and North Beach.
Citywide volume is down 25.0% against the prior 12 months — 37,408 incidents against 49,865 the year before. The signal mix reflects that structural decline: 100 sustained-shift signals and 91 below-trend readings across 41 neighborhoods, against a single spike in 207 total signals. South of Market vandalism and Portola burglary both ran below trend, consistent with the broad-based pattern.
This month's briefing is largely a continuation of what the prior several months established: a citywide decline held in place by widespread sustained shifts, with 15 zero-event signals and only one fresh above-trend move to track. The Noe Valley other-larceny spike is the one thread worth watching into April — everything else fits the existing arc.
San Francisco Crime Frequently Asked Questions
Trailing 12 months vs the prior 12 months, computed from the same NIBRS-aligned categories used everywhere else on the page. Updated each March 2026 briefing.
Is crime in San Francisco down?
Yes — citywide incident volume is 25.0% lower than the prior 12 months.
Across the trailing 12-month window we tracked 37,408 incidents in NIBRS-aligned categories, compared to 49,865 in the year before — down 12,457 incidents.
Is violent crime in San Francisco down?
Yes — homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, and sexual assault are down 22.4% combined in the trailing 12 months.
That's 4,239 violent incidents in the past year against 5,461 in the prior year. See the by-category section below for the per-bucket breakdown.
Is property crime in San Francisco down?
Yes — burglary, theft from vehicle, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson are down 26.2% combined in the trailing 12 months.
That's 27,353 property incidents in the past year against 37,073 in the prior year.
Which neighborhood in San Francisco saw the biggest crime drop?
Japantown — 48.3% fewer incidents than the prior 12 months.
Japantown logged 187 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 362 the year before.
Which neighborhood in San Francisco saw the biggest crime increase?
Lakeshore — 10.3% more incidents than the prior 12 months.
Lakeshore logged 877 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 795 the year before.
The denominators behind the numbers
Peninsula city; sharp microclimate and topography breaks (hills, parks, freeways) define neighborhood boundaries more than political ones.
ACS 2023 5-year estimates, county-level (San Francisco County).
City-level only. We deliberately do not juxtapose these with neighborhood-level crime data — see the methodology for why.
High pedestrian + transit exposure shifts crime-rate denominators away from “per resident” toward “per person-hour outdoors.”
SFPD reclassified some larceny coding in 2024; that window is noted on the methodology page so it doesn’t skew baselines.
Every neighborhood, color-coded
Largest moves this month
| # | Neighborhood | Category | MoM | YoY 12mo | |z| | 90-day trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Noe Valley | Other Larceny | -6% | +1% | 3.73 | SPIKE | |
| 02 | South of Market | Vandalism | -19% | -19% | 5.75 | DROP | |
| 03 | Portola | Burglary | — | -58% | 5.07 | DROP | |
| 04 | Hayes Valley | Vandalism | +22% | -20% | 4.70 | DROP | |
| 05 | North Beach | Motor Vehicle Theft | -50% | -44% | 4.62 | DROP | |
| 06 | Noe Valley | Theft from Vehicle | -50% | -49% | 4.58 | DROP | |
| 07 | West of Twin Peaks | Vandalism | -43% | -34% | 4.53 | DROP | |
| 08 | Nob Hill | Vandalism | -25% | -24% | 4.49 | DROP | |
| 09 | Bernal Heights | Theft from Vehicle | 0% | -53% | 4.35 | DROP | |
| 10 | Sunset/Parkside | Vandalism | 0% | -14% | 4.32 | DROP | |
| 11 | Pacific Heights | Vandalism | 0% | -20% | 4.16 | DROP | |
| 12 | Bayview Hunters Point | Vandalism | -3% | -16% | 4.12 | DROP |
The long arc — eight years of monthly counts
Four neighborhoods worth your time
Noe Valley
The past 12 months saw 364 incidents — about 94% above the 188 average from prior years.
Read briefing →DROP · VANDALISMSouth of Market
The past 12 months saw 526 incidents — about 27% below the 718 average from prior years.
Read briefing →DROP · BURGLARYPortola
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 67% below the 66 average from prior years.
Read briefing →DROP · VANDALISMHayes Valley
The past 12 months saw 169 incidents — about 41% below the 287 average from prior years.
Read briefing →Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents citywide across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
All 41 San Francisco neighborhoods
Crime rate trends and March 2026 briefings for every tracked neighborhood. Alphabetical.
- Bayview Hunters Point crime rate
- Bernal Heights crime rate
- Castro/Upper Market crime rate
- Chinatown crime rate
- Excelsior crime rate
- Financial District/South Beach crime rate
- Glen Park crime rate
- Golden Gate Park crime rate
- Haight Ashbury crime rate
- Hayes Valley crime rate
- Inner Richmond crime rate
- Inner Sunset crime rate
- Japantown crime rate
- Lakeshore crime rate
- Lincoln Park crime rate
- Lone Mountain/USF crime rate
- Marina crime rate
- McLaren Park crime rate
- Mission crime rate
- Mission Bay crime rate
- Nob Hill crime rate
- Noe Valley crime rate
- North Beach crime rate
- Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside crime rate
- Outer Mission crime rate
- Outer Richmond crime rate
- Pacific Heights crime rate
- Portola crime rate
- Potrero Hill crime rate
- Presidio crime rate
- Presidio Heights crime rate
- Russian Hill crime rate
- Seacliff crime rate
- South of Market crime rate
- Sunset/Parkside crime rate
- Tenderloin crime rate
- Treasure Island crime rate
- Twin Peaks crime rate
- Visitacion Valley crime rate
- West of Twin Peaks crime rate
- Western Addition crime rate
Every signal, every forecast, documented
Open about how we define spikes, what we exclude as noise, where the data comes from, and how often the model is wrong.