San Francisco · April 2026 briefing

San Francisco Crime Rate Trends

Data sourced from the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) Open Data portal and analyzed by Public Analyst.ai: 41 neighborhoods, 10 incident categories, twelve months of trailing comparison. Browse the rankings, scan the multi-year trends, or open a neighborhood-level breakdown.

Read methodologyUPDATED · AS OF 2026-04
202
tracked signals this month — across spikes, drops, sustained shifts, rare events.
-24.5%
overall city incident volume vs. trailing 12-month avg.
41
neighborhoods covered. Each gets its own page.
10
incident categories tracked, NIBRS-aligned.

Lincoln Park burglary ended a streak this month, the freshest signal in a briefing otherwise dominated by sustained declines. Noe Valley other-larceny has been the persistent backdrop — last month's citywide lead category — but the new story is the streak break in Lincoln Park, joined by a sexual assault streak break in Presidio Heights. Two streak breaks in the top five is unusual when the broader mix is this quiet.

Citywide volume is down 24.5% against the prior 12 months — 36,811 incidents against 48,778 in the year before. The signal mix is overwhelmingly tilted toward decline: 94 sustained-shift signals and 90 below-trend signals, plus 15 zero-event signals, against a single fresh spike across 41 neighborhoods. South of Market vandalism and Portola burglary both ran below trend, reinforcing the broad pattern.

The two streak breaks are the main things to watch heading into May. They don't reverse the citywide direction — the multi-year decline holds — but they represent the first fresh upward moves in those neighborhoods in several months. If either category holds above trend next month, it becomes a sustained signal rather than a one-month break.

WHAT TO READ NEXT
Direct answers

San Francisco Crime Frequently Asked Questions

Trailing 12 months vs the prior 12 months, computed from the same NIBRS-aligned categories used everywhere else on the page. Updated each April 2026 briefing.

Is crime in San Francisco down?

Yes — citywide incident volume is 24.5% lower than the prior 12 months.

Across the trailing 12-month window we tracked 36,811 incidents in NIBRS-aligned categories, compared to 48,778 in the year before — down 11,967 incidents.

Is violent crime in San Francisco down?

Yes — homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, and sexual assault are down 20.0% combined in the trailing 12 months.

That's 4,252 violent incidents in the past year against 5,318 in the prior year. See the by-category section below for the per-bucket breakdown.

Is property crime in San Francisco down?

Yes — burglary, theft from vehicle, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson are down 26.0% combined in the trailing 12 months.

That's 26,810 property incidents in the past year against 36,231 in the prior year.

What are the safest neighborhoods to stay in San Francisco?

Presidio, Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside, and Sunset/Parkside have the lowest crime rates in San Francisco — 7.2, 13.3, and 14.8 incidents per 1,000 residents over the trailing 12 months.

Computed as NIBRS-aligned trailing-12-month incident totals divided by the latest ACS 5-year residential population, expressed per 1,000 residents. Restricted to neighborhoods with at least 1,000 residents so park-only and industrial geographies — where visitor populations are not reflected in the residential denominator — are excluded.

Which neighborhood in San Francisco saw the biggest crime drop?

Japantown — 46.1% fewer incidents than the prior 12 months.

Japantown logged 188 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 349 the year before.

Which neighborhood in San Francisco saw the biggest crime increase?

Lakeshore — 11.5% more incidents than the prior 12 months.

Lakeshore logged 882 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 791 the year before.

City profile

The denominators behind the numbers

SOURCES · US CENSUS ACS 2024 · DATASF · SFPD
Geography
Land area46.9 mi²
Water area185 mi²
Coastline3 sides · Pacific + Bay
Elevation0–925 ft
Police districts10
Neighborhoods41 (analysis units)

Peninsula city; sharp microclimate and topography breaks (hills, parks, freeways) define neighborhood boundaries more than political ones.

Population
830,235
Density~17,702 / mi²
Median age40.0
Households~364K
Avg HH size2.21

ACS 2024 5-year estimates, county-level (San Francisco County).

Housing
Units~415K
Median rent$2,476
Median home value$1.39M
Vacancy12.2%
Tenure
Renter 62%Owner 38%
Stock
SFH 30%2–4 unit 20%5+ unit 49%
Economy & people
Median HH income$140,970
Poverty rate11.2%
Unemployment6.1%
Bachelor's+60.3%
Foreign-born34.0%
Age distribution
<18 14%18–34 27%35–64 41%65+ 18%

City-level only. We deliberately do not juxtapose these with neighborhood-level crime data — see the methodology for why.

Built environment
Street miles1,260
Parks (acres)5,860
Transit stops3,420
Walk score88 (high)

High pedestrian + transit exposure shifts crime-rate denominators away from “per resident” toward “per person-hour outdoors.”

Policing context
SFPD sworn officers1,537
Officers / 10K res.19.0
911 calls / yr1.21M
Open data lag≈ 48 hrs

SFPD reclassified some larceny coding in 2024; that window is noted on the methodology page so it doesn’t skew baselines.

Interactive map

Every neighborhood, color-coded

CLICK A NEIGHBORHOOD →
Category
Layer
Window
RAW COUNT · 1Y
241,8723,719
Rankings

Largest moves this month

RANKED BY ANOMALY STRENGTH
#NeighborhoodCategoryMoMYoY 12movs baseline90-day trendSignal
01Noe ValleyOther Larceny-13%+2%+94%SPIKE
02Lincoln ParkBurglarySTREAK BREAK
03Presidio HeightsSexual AssaultSTREAK BREAK
04South of MarketVandalism-23%-20%-28%DROP
05PortolaBurglary-25%-56%-65%DROP
06Noe ValleyTheft from Vehicle-33%-50%-62%DROP
07Pacific HeightsVandalism-43%-30%-44%DROP
08Sunset/ParksideVandalism+44%-18%-34%DROP
09Bernal HeightsTheft from Vehicle-44%-55%-73%DROP
10Hayes ValleyVandalism+64%-18%-40%DROP
11West of Twin PeaksVandalism+175%-31%-46%DROP
12North BeachMotor Vehicle Theft+150%-37%-55%DROP
Showing top 12 of 20 (neighborhood × category) cells with tracked signals.
Multi-year trends

The long arc — eight years of monthly counts

SELECT A CATEGORY ↓
036912201820192020202120222023202420252026monthly12-mo rolling mean
Latest 12mo59
YoY 12mo+55%
5-year change+354%
Window change+146%
Peak (12mo avg)5 · Apr '26
Trough (12mo avg)1 · Nov '20
ALL CATEGORIES · 8-YEAR ARC · 12-MO ROLLING MEAN
2018 ─────────────────── 2026
When does it happen?

Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality

Distribution of bucketed incidents citywide across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.

HOUR OF DAY · ALL CATEGORIES
020,02340,04612am6am12pm6pm11pm

Hour 0 is mildly inflated by reports without a known time defaulting to midnight — see methodology.

DAY OF WEEK · ALL CATEGORIES
046,09292,183MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
MONTH OF YEAR · ALL CATEGORIES
026,65753,315JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Methodology

How We Calculate San Francisco Crime Trends

Open about how we define spikes, what we exclude as noise, where the data comes from, and how often the model is wrong.

# anomaly rule — spike
flag = (z >= 2.5) AND (current_12mo >= 20) AND (current_6mo above sustained band)
where z = (current_12mo − μ_baseline) / σ_baseline
# exclusions (excerpt)
· simple assault (varies by reporting practice)
· drug offenses (reflect policing policy)
· admin records, weapons-possession, fraud
# 2025 backtest (citywide)
7 of 10 categories ≥ 90% coverage. see table →