Upper Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Upper Rockridge is the hillside extension of Rockridge above Highway 24, organized around the College Avenue ridge and the Hiller Drive corridor. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on heavily wooded streets with views west toward the Bay.
Four signals moved in Upper Rockridge this March — one single-month below-trend reading and three sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern is broadly downward across property crime: burglary and theft from vehicle both register as multi-month sustained shifts, not just a quiet week.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest move: 44 incidents over the current 12 months against 97 in the prior period, down 54.6% year-over-year. Burglary follows the same direction, dropping 50.0% over the same window (40 vs 80). Vandalism, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny are also all running below their prior-year levels — the breadth of the property-crime decline is the defining feature of this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 44 incidents — about 66% below the 129 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 44, down 55% from 97 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 50% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 37% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Upper Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Longfellow
44 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Upper Rockridge's 44.
Open page →Maxwell Park
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Upper Rockridge's 44.
Open page →Montclair
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Upper Rockridge's 44.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Upper Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.