Upper Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Upper Rockridge is the hillside extension of Rockridge above Highway 24, organized around the College Avenue ridge and the Hiller Drive corridor. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on heavily wooded streets with views west toward the Bay.
Four signals registered in Upper Rockridge this August, two single-month below-trend readings and two sustained shifts. The structural pattern is downward across property crime, with burglary and theft from vehicle both showing up in the month's signals and burglary also appearing as a longer-term structural decline, not just a quiet month.
Burglary is the clearest mover: the trailing 12 months logged 34 incidents against 60 in the prior year, a 43.3% decrease, and the below-trend reading this month sits on top of that multi-year decline. Theft from vehicle shows a parallel shape, down 50.0% year-over-year, 40 incidents vs. 80. Everything else held within range, with the notable exception of homicide, which doubled from 6 to 12 over the same 12-month window, though at low absolute counts that shift carries significant uncertainty.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 58% below the 80 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 68% below the 124 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 50% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 34, down 43% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Upper Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Westlake
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Upper Rockridge's 34.
Open page →Piedmont Avenue
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Upper Rockridge's 34.
Open page →Uptown
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Upper Rockridge's 34.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Upper Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.