Upper Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Upper Rockridge is the hillside extension of Rockridge above Highway 24, organized around the College Avenue ridge and the Hiller Drive corridor. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on heavily wooded streets with views west toward the Bay.
Five signals across Upper Rockridge this month — two one-month below-trend drops and three sustained structural shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The shape is a broad, multi-year property crime contraction, not a single quiet category.
Theft from vehicle and burglary both ran below trend in May 2026; burglary also registers as a sustained shift, with the trailing 12 months at 37 incidents against 73 in the prior year — down 49.3%. Theft from vehicle follows the same pattern: 42 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 127.02, with the prior year at 94. Robbery and motor vehicle theft reinforce the picture — down 55.0% and 29.6% respectively over the same window. The one exception is homicide, which moved in the opposite direction: 12 incidents in the current 12 months against 7 in the prior year, a 71.4% increase on a small base.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 42 incidents — about 67% below the 127 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 54% below the 81 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 42, down 55% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 49% from 73 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 90, down 32% from 133 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Upper Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Melrose
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Upper Rockridge's 42.
Open page →Maxwell Park
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Upper Rockridge's 42.
Open page →Montclair
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Upper Rockridge's 42.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Upper Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.