Upper Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Upper Rockridge is the hillside extension of Rockridge above Highway 24, organized around the College Avenue ridge and the Hiller Drive corridor. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on heavily wooded streets with views west toward the Bay.
Four signals registered in Upper Rockridge this March — one below-trend drop and three sustained shifts, all running in the same direction. The structural pattern across property crime is broadly downward: burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft have all been tracking lower for long enough that the data reflects multi-year compression, not just a quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest mover: 43 incidents in the current 12-month window against 97 in the prior year, down 55.7%. Burglary has also contracted substantially — 40 incidents vs. 80, a 50.0% reduction. Both categories register as sustained shifts, meaning the lower levels have held across multiple months. Everything else in the tracked set was within range for March.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 67% below the 129 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 56% from 97 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 50% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 37% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Upper Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Longfellow
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Upper Rockridge's 43.
Open page →Maxwell Park
44 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Upper Rockridge's 43.
Open page →Montclair
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Upper Rockridge's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Upper Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.