Upper Rockridge Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Upper Rockridge is the hillside extension of Rockridge above Highway 24, organized around the College Avenue ridge and the Hiller Drive corridor. Predominantly mid-century single-family housing on heavily wooded streets with views west toward the Bay.
Six categories moved in Upper Rockridge this July, split evenly between single-month below-trend signals and longer structural shifts. Three categories, burglary, theft from vehicle, and other larceny, ran below trend for the month. Three more registered as sustained shifts, meaning the movement isn't a one-month dip but a multi-year structural change in volume. The overall shape of the month is a broad, deepening decline across property crime.
Burglary is the strongest signal: 33 incidents over the current 12 months against 66 in the prior 12, down 50.0% year over year. Theft from vehicle follows a similar arc, 40 incidents vs. 88 in the prior year, down 54.5%. Other larceny dropped 33.1%, from 130 to 87. Everything else in the property crime basket stayed within the same downward pattern. The one category running in the opposite direction is vandalism, up 52.4% against the prior 12 months, 32 incidents vs. 21, a move that sits outside the broader decline and warrants watching in the months ahead.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 59% below the 81 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 68% below the 125 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 87 incidents — about 33% below the 131 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 55% from 88 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 50% from 66 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 87, down 33% from 130 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Upper Rockridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Longfellow
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Upper Rockridge's 33.
Open page →Uptown
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Upper Rockridge's 33.
Open page →Westlake
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Upper Rockridge's 33.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Upper Rockridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.