Lockwood Gardens Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Lockwood Gardens is an East Oakland residential neighborhood near the 73rd Avenue corridor, named for the Lockwood Gardens housing development built in the 1940s. Bordered by I-580 and the Coliseum-area industrial belt.
Four categories moved in Lockwood Gardens this July, three as one-month below-trend signals and one as a multi-month sustained shift. The overall shape is strongly downward across vehicle-related property crime and robbery, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft is the strongest signal: the trailing 12-month total of 127 incidents is down 19.6% against the prior year's 158. Theft from vehicle is down 52.1% over the same window, 23 incidents against 48, and robbery is down 26.9%, 38 incidents against 52. The sustained-shift signal sits on top of these one-month readings, indicating the downward move in this neighborhood predates July and reflects a structural change rather than a single quiet period.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 127 incidents — about 50% below the 252 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 60% below the 57 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 43% below the 67 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 23, down 52% from 48 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lockwood Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Temescal
129 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Lockwood Gardens's 127.
Open page →Longfellow
124 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Lockwood Gardens's 127.
Open page →Seminary Park
123 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Lockwood Gardens's 127.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lockwood Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.