Lockwood Gardens Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Lockwood Gardens is an East Oakland residential neighborhood near the 73rd Avenue corridor, named for the Lockwood Gardens housing development built in the 1940s. Bordered by I-580 and the Coliseum-area industrial belt.
Six categories moved in Lockwood Gardens this March — four ran below trend in the current month, and two reflect sustained structural shifts over the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property crime and violent categories, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Motor Vehicle Theft leads the tracked signals: the current 12-month total stands at 131 against a multi-year baseline mean of 259.8, and year-over-year it is down 36.1%. Theft from Vehicle is also well below the prior period — 28 incidents against 52, a 46.2% decline — and Vandalism dropped from 103 to 83, down 19.4%. Robbery and Sexual Assault both show double-digit 12-month declines as well; Burglary, at 100 incidents against a prior 73, is the one category moving in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 131 incidents — about 50% below the 260 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 83 incidents — about 27% below the 113 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 51% below the 57 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 44 incidents — about 36% below the 69 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 131, down 36% from 205 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 46% from 52 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lockwood Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Grand Lake
130 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Lockwood Gardens's 131.
Open page →Uptown
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Lockwood Gardens's 131.
Open page →Seminary Park
123 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Lockwood Gardens's 131.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lockwood Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.