Lockwood Gardens Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Lockwood Gardens is an East Oakland residential neighborhood near the 73rd Avenue corridor, named for the Lockwood Gardens housing development built in the 1940s. Bordered by I-580 and the Coliseum-area industrial belt.
Five categories moved in Lockwood Gardens this August, four of them one-month below-trend signals and one a sustained multi-month structural shift. The pattern is broad and consistently downward, spanning violent crime, vehicle crime, and property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend, with theft from vehicle down 50.0% and motor vehicle theft down 14.8% against the prior 12 months. Sexual assault recorded 5 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 14 in the year before, a 64.3% reduction that reflects the sustained-shift signal rather than a single quiet month. Homicide is the one counter-move: 30 incidents in the current 12 months against 22 in the prior year, up 36.4%, a figure that stands out against an otherwise broad decline across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 77 incidents — about 30% below the 110 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 59% below the 57 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 132 incidents — about 47% below the 250 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 46% below the 66 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 23, down 50% from 46 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lockwood Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Glenview
78 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Lockwood Gardens's 77.
Open page →Melrose
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Lockwood Gardens's 77.
Open page →Eastmont
79 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Lockwood Gardens's 77.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lockwood Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.