Temescal Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Temescal is a North Oakland commercial-and-residential neighborhood organized around the Telegraph Avenue and 51st Street commercial corridor, just south of Berkeley. Anchored by Temescal Alley, weekend street markets, and a cluster of food destinations.
Eight categories moved in Temescal this May — four ran below trend in the current month, four registered as sustained structural shifts over the trailing 12 months. The pattern is broadly and consistently downward across violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals in the mix.
Robbery leads the top signals: 21 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 52.24, and down 47.5% from the prior year's 40. Burglary shows the same direction — 58 incidents versus 112 the year before, a 48.2% drop — and other larceny is down 31.8% (214 current vs. 314 prior). Theft from vehicle is the one category running the other way, up 31.5% to 980 incidents against 745 in the prior 12 months; everything else tracked at or below prior-year levels.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 60% below the 52 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 58 incidents — about 54% below the 125 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 214 incidents — about 39% below the 350 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 119 incidents — about 53% below the 255 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 980, up 32% from 745 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 214, down 32% from 314 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 58, down 48% from 112 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 119, down 38% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Temescal compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Temescal, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.