Temescal Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Temescal is a North Oakland commercial-and-residential neighborhood organized around the Telegraph Avenue and 51st Street commercial corridor, just south of Berkeley. Anchored by Temescal Alley, weekend street markets, and a cluster of food destinations.
Eight categories moved in Temescal this March — three one-month below-trend signals and five sustained structural shifts, with the overall pattern running sharply downward across both violent and property crime. The sustained-shift count is the more significant story: five categories have moved not just for a month but across the trailing 12-month window compared to the 12 before, indicating a multi-year reconfiguration rather than a single quiet stretch.
Robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft are the three clearest below-trend signals this month. Robbery is the sharpest: the current 12-month total is 19 incidents against a prior-year 47 — down 59.6% — and well below the multi-year baseline of 52.77. Burglary is down 50.4% (59 vs. 119) and motor vehicle theft down 41.9% (115 vs. 198). Theft from vehicle is the one category running the other direction, up 36.9% to 932 incidents against 681 the prior year, and aggravated assault is up 13.0% — two categories worth watching as the rest of the neighborhood's crime profile contracts.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 64% below the 53 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 53% below the 125 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 115 incidents — about 55% below the 258 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 932, up 37% from 681 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 235, down 33% from 350 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 115, down 42% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 50% from 119 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Temescal compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Temescal, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.