Adams Point Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Adams Point is a residential neighborhood between Lake Merritt and Piedmont, organized around walkable streets, mid-century apartment buildings, and the lake's eastern shore. Bordered by Grand Avenue's restaurants and small businesses to the north and the lake's promenade to the west.
Five signals moved in Adams Point this month — two single-month below-trend readings and three sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle each ran below trend on the month; theft from vehicle also registers as a sustained shift, with the trailing 12-month total at 165 incidents against 250 the prior year, a 34.0% decline. Vandalism is down 32.0% over the same window — 87 incidents against 128 — and the 12-month baseline for that category had been running at 264 incidents. Motor vehicle theft and burglary follow a similar direction: -27.9% and -17.3%, respectively, year over year. Every category in the neighborhood tracked lower or held flat against the prior 12 months.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 87 incidents — about 67% below the 264 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 165 incidents — about 67% below the 504 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 165, down 34% from 250 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 194, down 28% from 269 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 87, down 32% from 128 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Adams Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Melrose
89 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Adams Point's 87.
Open page →Lockwood Gardens
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Adams Point's 87.
Open page →Eastmont
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Adams Point's 87.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Adams Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.