Adams Point Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Adams Point is a residential neighborhood between Lake Merritt and Piedmont, organized around walkable streets, mid-century apartment buildings, and the lake's eastern shore. Bordered by Grand Avenue's restaurants and small businesses to the north and the lake's promenade to the west.
Adams Point had four signals in August 2026, split evenly between one-month below-trend moves and longer structural shifts. Two categories, burglary and theft from vehicle, ran below trend for the month. Burglary also registers as a sustained shift, meaning the decline is not a single quiet month but a multi-month structural change.
Burglary is the strongest signal: 45 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 84 in the prior year, down 46.4%. Theft from vehicle follows the same direction, 124 incidents vs. 212 the year before, a 41.5% decrease over the same window. The rest of the tracked categories were within their usual ranges, with robbery and homicide showing 12-month increases citywide but no single-month anomaly registered for Adams Point this period.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 51% below the 91 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 74% below the 471 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 42% from 212 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 46% from 84 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Adams Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Grand Lake
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Adams Point's 45.
Open page →Rockridge
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Adams Point's 45.
Open page →San Antonio
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Adams Point's 45.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Adams Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.