Adams Point Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Adams Point is a residential neighborhood between Lake Merritt and Piedmont, organized around walkable streets, mid-century apartment buildings, and the lake's eastern shore. Bordered by Grand Avenue's restaurants and small businesses to the north and the lake's promenade to the west.
Two signals surfaced in Adams Point this July, both pointing the same direction: theft from vehicle. One is a single-month below-trend reading; the other is a sustained structural shift, meaning the decline has held across enough consecutive months to register as a multi-year change in pattern, not a one-off dip. Every other tracked category fell within its normal range.
Theft from vehicle is the clearest story in the 12-month numbers. The current 12-month total stands at 131 incidents, down from 221 in the prior 12 months, a 40.7% year-over-year decline. Homicide and robbery both moved in the opposite direction over the same window, 34 vs. 24 and 48 vs. 35 respectively, but neither triggered a signal this month, meaning those shifts did not cross the anomaly threshold in July.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 131 incidents — about 73% below the 477 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 131, down 41% from 221 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Adams Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
West Oakland
139 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Adams Point's 131.
Open page →Grand Lake
96 incidents over the past 12 months — 35 below Adams Point's 131.
Open page →Pill Hill
85 incidents over the past 12 months — 46 below Adams Point's 131.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Adams Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.