Adams Point Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Adams Point is a residential neighborhood between Lake Merritt and Piedmont, organized around walkable streets, mid-century apartment buildings, and the lake's eastern shore. Bordered by Grand Avenue's restaurants and small businesses to the north and the lake's promenade to the west.
Five categories moved in Adams Point this March — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward: no category ran above trend, and the sustained-shift count points to declines that have been building across multiple months, not single-month noise.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both registered as below-trend this month, with theft from vehicle also appearing as a sustained shift — meaning the decline is structural, not a one-off. The 12-month theft-from-vehicle total stands at 167, down 33.2% against the prior year's 250. Vandalism sits at 88 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 31.2% from 128. Everything else — robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and the rest of the tracked categories — ran within range.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 67% below the 264 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 167 incidents — about 67% below the 504 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 167, down 33% from 250 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 195, down 28% from 269 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 88, down 31% from 128 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Adams Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Melrose
89 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Adams Point's 88.
Open page →Lockwood Gardens
84 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Adams Point's 88.
Open page →Eastmont
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Adams Point's 88.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Adams Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.