Montclair Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Montclair is a hills neighborhood at the intersection of Mountain Boulevard and Moraga Way, organized around the Montclair commercial village. Single-family housing on heavily wooded streets at elevations rising toward Skyline Boulevard.
Two signals moved in Montclair this August, both pointing the same direction: theft from vehicle is down, and has been for a while. One signal is a single-month below-trend reading; the other reflects a structural shift across the full trailing 12 months. Every other tracked category was within normal range.
Theft from vehicle stands at 27 incidents over the current 12-month window, against 97 in the prior 12 months, a 72.2% reduction year over year. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are also running lower than the year before, down 34.1% and 34.9% respectively, though neither crossed the signal threshold this month. Other larceny moved in the opposite direction, up 50.9% to 83 incidents, but produced no anomaly signal. The dominant picture in Montclair is a sustained contraction in vehicle-related property crime, concentrated most sharply in theft from vehicle.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 27 incidents — about 65% below the 77 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 27, down 72% from 97 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Montclair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Lockwood Gardens
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Montclair's 27.
Open page →San Antonio
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Montclair's 27.
Open page →Golden Gate
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Montclair's 27.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montclair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.