Montclair Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Montclair is a hills neighborhood at the intersection of Mountain Boulevard and Moraga Way, organized around the Montclair commercial village. Single-family housing on heavily wooded streets at elevations rising toward Skyline Boulevard.
Three categories moved in Montclair this March — one below-trend single-month drop and two sustained structural shifts, both pointing downward. The overall shape is a broad multi-year contraction in property crime across the neighborhood, not a one-month event.
Burglary is the sharpest single-month signal, running well below its multi-year baseline of 66.03 incidents; the trailing 12-month total is 31, down 31.1% against the prior year's 45. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft have both shifted structurally lower — 49 vs. 94 and 28 vs. 53 over the same comparison window, down 47.9% and 47.2% respectively. Other Larceny is the one counter-move, up 11.3% to 69 incidents, but it registered no signal this month and sits outside the top three movers.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 53% below the 66 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 48% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 47% from 53 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Montclair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Oakmore Highlands
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Montclair's 31.
Open page →Longfellow
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Montclair's 31.
Open page →Millsmont
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Montclair's 31.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montclair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from OPD's CrimeWatch feed on Oakland Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.