Montclair Crime Rate Trends — Oakland
Montclair is a hills neighborhood at the intersection of Mountain Boulevard and Moraga Way, organized around the Montclair commercial village. Single-family housing on heavily wooded streets at elevations rising toward Skyline Boulevard.
Three categories moved in Montclair this March — one registered a one-month below-trend signal and two reflect structural multi-month shifts. The dominant shape is a sustained, broad retreat across property crime, with vehicle-related categories leading the way.
Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft have both been running structurally lower across the trailing 12 months: theft from vehicle is down 50.0% against the prior year (47 incidents vs. 94), and motor vehicle theft is down 47.2% (28 vs. 53). Burglary also ran below trend in March, with the current 12-month total at 29 against a baseline of 66.03 — a count that is down 35.6% year over year. Other larceny is the one category moving in the opposite direction, up 11.3% against the prior year, and sits outside the otherwise downward pattern across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 29 incidents — about 56% below the 66 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 50% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 47% from 53 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Montclair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Oakmore Highlands
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Montclair's 29.
Open page →Maxwell Park
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Montclair's 29.
Open page →Longfellow
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Montclair's 29.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montclair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.