Bayview Hunters Point Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Bayview Hunters Point is a residential and waterfront neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco with deep cultural roots and a working-class, formerly industrial character. Once anchored by the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, the area is now undergoing significant redevelopment along its waterfront and the Third Street corridor.
Eight categories moved in Bayview Hunters Point this September 2026 briefing. Five ran below trend as one-month drops, and three registered as sustained structural shifts, the kind that reflect multi-year repositioning rather than a single quiet month. The overall shape is broadly downward, across both violent and property crime.
Vandalism, burglary, and aggravated assault are the three strongest signals this month, all running below their recent baselines. Burglary is down 44.6% over the trailing 12 months, 138 incidents against 249 the year before. Aggravated assault and robbery show similar trajectories, down 22.6% and 30.2% respectively, while motor vehicle theft has fallen 34.9% to 380 incidents. Arson is the one category moving the other direction, up 34.9% to 58 incidents over the past 12 months, and the three sustained-shift signals suggest the declines in property and violent crime are not simply a one-month read.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 414 incidents — about 28% below the 573 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 138 incidents — about 57% below the 317 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 219 incidents — about 39% below the 357 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 366 incidents — about 51% below the 740 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 380 incidents — about 54% below the 826 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 380, down 35% from 584 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 138, down 45% from 249 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 97, down 30% from 139 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bayview Hunters Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
South of Market
468 incidents over the past 12 months — 54 above Bayview Hunters Point's 414.
Open page →Tenderloin
503 incidents over the past 12 months — 89 above Bayview Hunters Point's 414.
Open page →Financial District/South Beach
295 incidents over the past 12 months — 119 below Bayview Hunters Point's 414.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bayview Hunters Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.