Bayview Hunters Point Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Bayview Hunters Point is a residential and waterfront neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco with deep cultural roots and a working-class, formerly industrial character. Once anchored by the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, the area is now undergoing significant redevelopment along its waterfront and the Third Street corridor.
Seven categories moved in Bayview Hunters Point in April 2026 — three one-month below-trend signals and four sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern runs broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events breaking that direction.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and burglary all ran below trend this month; burglary's trailing 12 months stand at 160 incidents against 296 the prior year, down 45.9%. Theft from vehicle fell to 321 over the same window from 494, down 35.0%, and motor vehicle theft is down 50.1% — 403 incidents versus 808. Four of the seven signals are sustained shifts, meaning these are multi-year structural moves, not single quiet months.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 438 incidents — about 24% below the 578 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 321 incidents — about 58% below the 759 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 160 incidents — about 50% below the 321 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 403, down 50% from 808 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 160, down 46% from 296 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 321, down 35% from 494 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 112, down 30% from 160 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bayview Hunters Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Tenderloin
472 incidents over the past 12 months — 34 above Bayview Hunters Point's 438.
Open page →South of Market
515 incidents over the past 12 months — 77 above Bayview Hunters Point's 438.
Open page →Financial District/South Beach
337 incidents over the past 12 months — 101 below Bayview Hunters Point's 438.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bayview Hunters Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.