Bayview Hunters Point Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Bayview Hunters Point is a residential and waterfront neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco with deep cultural roots and a working-class, formerly industrial character. Once anchored by the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, the area is now undergoing significant redevelopment along its waterfront and the Third Street corridor.
Nine categories moved in Bayview Hunters Point this August 2026 briefing. Six ran below trend in a single-month drop, and three registered as sustained structural shifts, a mix that points to a broad, multi-month decline across the neighborhood rather than a few isolated quiet weeks. The overall direction is consistently downward across both violent and property crime.
Vandalism, burglary, and theft from vehicle were the three strongest below-trend signals. Burglary is down 44.1% against the prior 12 months, 147 incidents against 263. Motor vehicle theft has fallen 37.1% over the same window, 394 against 626. Vandalism current 12-month volume sits at 413 against 482 a year prior, down 14.3%. Other larceny is the one category running above its prior-year pace, up 5.3% to 459 incidents, the only upward move in an otherwise broadly declining month.
Notable signals 6
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 413 incidents — about 28% below the 574 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 147 incidents — about 54% below the 318 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 363 incidents — about 51% below the 744 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 230 incidents — about 36% below the 358 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 96 incidents — about 50% below the 192 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 394 incidents — about 52% below the 829 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 394, down 37% from 626 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 147, down 44% from 263 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 96, down 36% from 150 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bayview Hunters Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
South of Market
465 incidents over the past 12 months — 52 above Bayview Hunters Point's 413.
Open page →Tenderloin
496 incidents over the past 12 months — 83 above Bayview Hunters Point's 413.
Open page →Financial District/South Beach
298 incidents over the past 12 months — 115 below Bayview Hunters Point's 413.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bayview Hunters Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.