Bayview Hunters Point Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Bayview Hunters Point is a residential and waterfront neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco with deep cultural roots and a working-class, formerly industrial character. Once anchored by the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, the area is now undergoing significant redevelopment along its waterfront and the Third Street corridor.
Eight categories moved in Bayview Hunters Point this June — four one-month below-trend signals and four sustained structural shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The dominant shape is a broad property-crime decline, not a single outlier pulling the numbers down.
Vandalism leads the signals: current 12-month volume is 422 incidents against a baseline of 576.47, and down 17.6% against the prior year's 512. Burglary and theft from vehicle reinforce the same pattern — burglary is down 43.5% year-over-year (153 vs. 271) and theft from vehicle is down 26.0% (347 vs. 469). Motor vehicle theft, not in the top three but part of the sustained-shift group, is also down 42.4% against the prior 12 months.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 422 incidents — about 27% below the 576 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 153 incidents — about 52% below the 320 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 347 incidents — about 54% below the 752 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 244 incidents — about 32% below the 360 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 419, down 42% from 727 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 153, down 44% from 271 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 347, down 26% from 469 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 98, down 38% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bayview Hunters Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Tenderloin
473 incidents over the past 12 months — 51 above Bayview Hunters Point's 422.
Open page →South of Market
507 incidents over the past 12 months — 85 above Bayview Hunters Point's 422.
Open page →Financial District/South Beach
310 incidents over the past 12 months — 112 below Bayview Hunters Point's 422.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bayview Hunters Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.