Bayview Hunters Point Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Bayview Hunters Point is a residential and waterfront neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco with deep cultural roots and a working-class, formerly industrial character. Once anchored by the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, the area is now undergoing significant redevelopment along its waterfront and the Third Street corridor.
Six categories moved in Bayview Hunters Point this March — three ran below trend in the current month and three registered as sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and burglary all came in below trend this month. Vandalism's 12-month total sits at 431 against a prior-year count of 511, down 15.7%. Burglary has fallen further: 164 incidents in the current 12 months against 302 in the year before, a 45.7% decline. Motor vehicle theft shows the steepest structural drop in the data — 411 incidents vs. 832, down 50.6% — and is one of the sustained-shift signals reinforcing that this isn't a single quiet month but a multi-year repositioning across property categories.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 431 incidents — about 25% below the 578 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 313 incidents — about 59% below the 762 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 164 incidents — about 49% below the 321 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 411, down 51% from 832 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 313, down 39% from 509 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 164, down 46% from 302 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bayview Hunters Point compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Tenderloin
493 incidents over the past 12 months — 62 above Bayview Hunters Point's 431.
Open page →Financial District/South Beach
350 incidents over the past 12 months — 81 below Bayview Hunters Point's 431.
Open page →South of Market
526 incidents over the past 12 months — 95 above Bayview Hunters Point's 431.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bayview Hunters Point, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.