Visitacion Valley Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Visitacion Valley is a working-class residential neighborhood at San Francisco's southeastern edge, bordering Daly City near the county line. It includes the Sunnydale public housing community and one of the most diverse populations in the city, with a quiet, suburban feel relative to denser cores.
Four signals surfaced in Visitacion Valley this March — one single-month below-trend move and three sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern is uniformly downward across property crime, with vehicle-related categories driving the most pronounced changes.
Theft from Vehicle is the clearest story: 47 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 133.3 and a prior-year total of 105, a 55.2% year-over-year decline that qualifies as both a one-month drop and a sustained multi-year shift. Motor Vehicle Theft follows the same direction — 57 incidents in the current 12 months vs. 110 in the prior period, down 48.2%. Robbery and Vandalism are also lower year-over-year, at -23.1% and -36.7% respectively, and every other tracked category in the neighborhood ended the 12-month window below where it stood the year before.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 47 incidents — about 65% below the 133 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 55% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 57, down 48% from 110 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 76, down 37% from 120 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Visitacion Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Presidio Heights
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Visitacion Valley's 47.
Open page →Glen Park
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Visitacion Valley's 47.
Open page →Japantown
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Visitacion Valley's 47.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Visitacion Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.