Financial District/South Beach Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Financial District is San Francisco's downtown business core — the city's tallest skyline, including Salesforce Tower and the Transamerica Pyramid, sits within its boundaries. South Beach extends the district to the Embarcadero waterfront and Oracle Park, mixing high-rise condos and corporate offices with a public bayfront promenade.
Nine categories moved in Financial District/South Beach this June — two one-month below-trend drops and seven sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across nearly every tracked category, not a single quiet month but a pattern that has been building across the trailing 12 months.
Motor Vehicle Theft is the sharpest single-month signal, running well below its multi-year baseline of 249.16 annual incidents — the current 12-month total stands at 148, down 43.7% against the prior year's 263. Vandalism also registered a one-month drop, while Robbery is among seven categories showing sustained structural declines: 71 incidents in the current 12 months against 113 in the year before, a 37.2% reduction. Theft from Vehicle has the steepest 12-month move of any category — down 50.6%, 271 incidents against 549 — and every other tracked category, from Aggravated Assault to Arson, is running below its prior-year level as well.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 148 incidents — about 41% below the 249 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 310 incidents — about 55% below the 685 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 271, down 51% from 549 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 773, down 35% from 1,181 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 44% from 263 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 235, down 32% from 344 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Financial District/South Beach compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Western Addition
124 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below Financial District/South Beach's 148.
Open page →Nob Hill
120 incidents over the past 12 months — 28 below Financial District/South Beach's 148.
Open page →Sunset/Parkside
112 incidents over the past 12 months — 36 below Financial District/South Beach's 148.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Financial District/South Beach, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.