Excelsior Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Excelsior is a working-class residential neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco, defined by the commercial spine of Mission Street and rows of single-family homes climbing the surrounding hills. It has a quieter, suburban feel relative to the city center, with deep neighborhood roots along the Mission Street corridor.
Seven categories moved in Excelsior in September 2026, four running below trend for the month and three showing sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Robbery, burglary, and theft from vehicle all registered below-trend signals this month. The 12-month totals reinforce the direction: burglary stands at 38 incidents against 76 in the prior year, down 50.0%, and theft from vehicle is at 90 against 171, down 47.4%. Robbery's 12-month count of 45 is down 19.6% against the prior year's 56. Vandalism and motor vehicle theft follow the same downward pattern at the 12-month level, while other larceny and aggravated assault moved the other way, up 9.6% and 23.5% respectively, the two categories that cut against an otherwise consistently falling trend.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 50% below the 90 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 58% below the 90 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 90 incidents — about 71% below the 307 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 112 incidents — about 35% below the 173 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 96, down 48% from 184 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 90, down 47% from 171 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 38, down 50% from 76 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Excelsior compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Bernal Heights
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Excelsior's 45.
Open page →Castro/Upper Market
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Excelsior's 45.
Open page →Western Addition
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Excelsior's 45.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Excelsior, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.