Excelsior Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Excelsior is a working-class residential neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco, defined by the commercial spine of Mission Street and rows of single-family homes climbing the surrounding hills. It has a quieter, suburban feel relative to the city center, with deep neighborhood roots along the Mission Street corridor.
Eight categories moved in Excelsior this April — four ran below trend in the month and four registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad property and violent crime decline, not a single outlier pulling the average down.
Vandalism leads the top signals: the trailing 12-month total of 110 incidents is well below the 148 recorded in the prior year, a 25.7% decline. Robbery and theft from vehicle both also ran below trend — robbery is down 36.6% over the same window (52 incidents vs. 82), and theft from vehicle is down 54.9% (106 vs. 235). The four sustained-shift signals indicate these moves aren't just a quiet April; the structural pattern has been building across multiple months.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 38% below the 176 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 43% below the 92 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 66% below the 315 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 55% below the 90 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 106, down 55% from 235 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 125, down 42% from 217 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 58% from 96 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 37% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Excelsior compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
West of Twin Peaks
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Excelsior's 110.
Open page →Pacific Heights
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Excelsior's 110.
Open page →Lakeshore
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Excelsior's 110.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Excelsior, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.