Excelsior Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Excelsior is a working-class residential neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco, defined by the commercial spine of Mission Street and rows of single-family homes climbing the surrounding hills. It has a quieter, suburban feel relative to the city center, with deep neighborhood roots along the Mission Street corridor.
Nine categories moved in Excelsior this March — four ran below trend as one-month signals and five registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly and persistently downward across both violent and property crime, with no fresh spikes in the mix.
Vandalism, robbery, and burglary all came in below trend this month. The 12-month picture deepens that reading: burglary is down 61.5% against the prior year (40 incidents vs. 104), theft from vehicle is down 52.9% (114 vs. 242), and robbery is down 43.2% (50 vs. 88). Vandalism's current 12-month total of 105 sits well below the 176.5 baseline mean. Other larceny is the one category holding flat, at 166 incidents year over year — every other tracked category is lower.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 41% below the 177 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 46% below the 92 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 55% below the 89 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 114 incidents — about 64% below the 316 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 114, down 53% from 242 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 62% from 104 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 132, down 41% from 225 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 34% from 159 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Excelsior compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Lakeshore
105 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Excelsior's 105.
Open page →Outer Richmond
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Excelsior's 105.
Open page →West of Twin Peaks
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Excelsior's 105.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Excelsior, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.