Excelsior Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Excelsior is a working-class residential neighborhood in southeastern San Francisco, defined by the commercial spine of Mission Street and rows of single-family homes climbing the surrounding hills. It has a quieter, suburban feel relative to the city center, with deep neighborhood roots along the Mission Street corridor.
Eight categories moved in Excelsior in June 2026 — four one-month below-trend signals and four sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism, Theft from Vehicle, and Robbery all ran below trend this month. The 12-month totals reinforce the structural read: Burglary is down 56.0% against the prior year (40 incidents vs. 91), Theft from Vehicle is down 54.2% (93 vs. 203), and Motor Vehicle Theft is down 50.7% (104 vs. 211). Other Larceny is the one exception, up 8.3% over the same window — the only category moving against the grain in an otherwise broad decline.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 96 incidents — about 45% below the 175 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 93 incidents — about 70% below the 312 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 53 incidents — about 42% below the 91 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 55% below the 90 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 93, down 54% from 203 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 104, down 51% from 211 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 56% from 91 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 96, down 29% from 136 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Excelsior compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Pacific Heights
95 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Excelsior's 96.
Open page →Outer Mission
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Excelsior's 96.
Open page →Outer Richmond
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Excelsior's 96.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Excelsior, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.