Twin Peaks Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Twin Peaks is San Francisco's iconic pair of 922-foot summits at the geographic center of the city, with the Christmas Tree Point overlook offering a panoramic view of the bay. The residential streets that climb its slopes — and the broadcast Sutro Tower visible from across the city — define its character.
Twin Peaks logged two signals in September 2026, a below-trend reading in one category and a zero-event signal in another, against an otherwise stable month across all tracked categories. The structural picture is broadly downward: every category in the trailing 12 months is running below the prior year, and the signals this month reflect that same direction rather than any isolated disruption.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest move, down 51.9% over the trailing 12 months, 13 incidents against 27 in the year before. Theft from vehicle and other larceny are both running roughly 24% below the prior year, 34 and 35 incidents respectively against 45 and 46. Burglary and vandalism are also lower year-over-year, down 12.5% and 15.6%. No category moved above trend this month, and nothing outside property crime registered a signal.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 13 incidents — about 69% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Twin Peaks compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
McLaren Park
11 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Twin Peaks's 13.
Open page →Presidio
6 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Twin Peaks's 13.
Open page →Seacliff
4 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Twin Peaks's 13.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Twin Peaks, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.