Marina Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Marina is a flat, affluent waterfront neighborhood built on land reclaimed for the 1915 Panama–Pacific International Exposition, with stucco apartment buildings and a young, professional resident base. Its public open space — the Marina Green and the adjoining Crissy Field — gives it some of the most recognizable Golden Gate Bridge views in the city.
Four categories moved in Marina this March — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across property crime, with theft from vehicle the clearest story and the rest of the month quieter by comparison.
Theft from vehicle is down 47.1% over the trailing 12 months, 156 incidents against 295 the year prior, and it registers both as a one-month drop and as a sustained multi-year shift — the strongest convergence in this briefing. Robbery also ran below trend this month, though at 23 incidents over 12 months it remains a low-volume category. Burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism all moved lower on a 12-month basis as well, but none crossed the signal threshold — they were within range.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 156 incidents — about 85% below the 1073 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 55% below the 51 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 156, down 47% from 295 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 62, down 44% from 110 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Marina compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Russian Hill
152 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Marina's 156.
Open page →North Beach
147 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Marina's 156.
Open page →West of Twin Peaks
139 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below Marina's 156.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Marina, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.