Marina Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Marina is a flat, affluent waterfront neighborhood built on land reclaimed for the 1915 Panama–Pacific International Exposition, with stucco apartment buildings and a young, professional resident base. Its public open space — the Marina Green and the adjoining Crissy Field — gives it some of the most recognizable Golden Gate Bridge views in the city.
Two signals surfaced in the Marina this August, both pointing the same direction: theft from vehicle is running well below its multi-year pace. One signal is a single-month below-trend reading; the other reflects a structural sustained shift across the trailing 12 months, meaning this is not just a quiet August but a category that has been tracking lower for an extended period.
Theft from vehicle stands at 122 incidents over the current 12 months, against 222 in the prior year, a 45.0% year-over-year decline. Every other tracked category came in within its normal range this month. Burglary is up 19.7% year-over-year (182 vs 152) and robbery is up 68.8% (27 vs 16), but neither crossed the threshold for a one-month signal, so the dominant story remains the steep, sustained drop in vehicle break-ins.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 122 incidents — about 88% below the 1022 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 122, down 45% from 222 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Marina compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Outer Richmond
119 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Marina's 122.
Open page →Chinatown
117 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Marina's 122.
Open page →Russian Hill
129 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Marina's 122.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Marina, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.