Marina Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Marina is a flat, affluent waterfront neighborhood built on land reclaimed for the 1915 Panama–Pacific International Exposition, with stucco apartment buildings and a young, professional resident base. Its public open space — the Marina Green and the adjoining Crissy Field — gives it some of the most recognizable Golden Gate Bridge views in the city.
Five categories moved in Marina this April — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant story is not a single month's dip but a broad, multi-year compression across property crime categories.
Theft from vehicle is both the sharpest single-month signal and a structural shift: the trailing 12-month total stands at 148, down 48.3% against the prior 12 months (286). Motor vehicle theft has moved in the same direction — down 46.8%, 58 incidents vs 109 — and vandalism is down 28.8%. Robbery registered a one-month below-trend read, though the 12-month total of 22 is flat against the prior year. Everything else across the tracked categories is within or below its prior-year range.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 148 incidents — about 86% below the 1062 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 57% below the 51 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 48% from 286 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 58, down 47% from 109 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 126, down 29% from 177 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Marina compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Potrero Hill
146 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Marina's 148.
Open page →Russian Hill
150 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Marina's 148.
Open page →North Beach
141 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Marina's 148.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Marina, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.