Marina Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Marina is a flat, affluent waterfront neighborhood built on land reclaimed for the 1915 Panama–Pacific International Exposition, with stucco apartment buildings and a young, professional resident base. Its public open space — the Marina Green and the adjoining Crissy Field — gives it some of the most recognizable Golden Gate Bridge views in the city.
Marina had a narrow month by most measures: one tracked signal surfaced across all categories, a sustained structural shift in theft from vehicle, not a single-month aberration but a multi-month pattern now embedded in the trailing 12-month window.
Theft from vehicle is the clearest mover, down 44.3% against the prior 12 months, 118 incidents vs 212. Aggravated assault also fell sharply over the same window, 21 incidents against 32 the year before, a 34.4% reduction, though it did not cross the threshold for a formal signal this month. Robbery moved the other direction, 26 incidents vs 16 a year ago, a 62.5% rise, and is worth watching even if no single month triggered a spike signal. Everything else, burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, arson, landed within range of their prior-year totals.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 118, down 44% from 212 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Marina compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Russian Hill
117 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Marina's 118.
Open page →Chinatown
115 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Marina's 118.
Open page →Outer Richmond
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Marina's 118.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Marina, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.