Outer Richmond Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Outer Richmond is a foggy residential neighborhood at San Francisco's western edge, running from the Pacific coast to the Inner Richmond border. It is best known for the historic Cliff House and Sutro Baths ruins overlooking the ocean, low-rise rows of family homes, and a quiet, fog-belt rhythm.
Three categories moved in Outer Richmond this September: two one-month below-trend signals and one sustained structural shift. The overall shape is downward across property crime, with no spikes and nothing in the violent-crime categories registering as anomalous.
Vandalism and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend for the month. The deeper story is theft from vehicle, which has shifted structurally: 111 incidents over the current 12 months against 176 in the prior year, a 36.9% reduction that reflects a multi-year move, not a single quiet month. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are also tracking lower on a 12-month basis, down 14.9% and 29.1% respectively. Robbery is the one category moving the other direction, 32 incidents in the current 12 months against 23 prior, up 39.1%, though it produced no single-month signal this briefing.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 49% below the 190 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 59% below the 179 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 111, down 37% from 176 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Outer Richmond compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Haight Ashbury
96 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Outer Richmond's 97.
Open page →Outer Mission
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Outer Richmond's 97.
Open page →Potrero Hill
93 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Outer Richmond's 97.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Outer Richmond, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.