Noe Valley Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Noe Valley is a family-friendly residential neighborhood south of the Mission, set in a 'banana belt' microclimate that keeps it noticeably sunnier than fog-prone parts of the city. Its commercial life clusters along 24th Street, lined with bakeries, cafes, and small shops set against blocks of Victorian and Edwardian homes.
Seven categories moved in Noe Valley in April 2026 — three one-month below-trend signals, three sustained structural shifts, and one spike. The mix is split: property crime categories like theft from vehicle and vandalism are running below trend, while other larceny is moving in the opposite direction.
Other larceny is the sharpest single signal this month — 368 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 189.79, more than double the multi-year average. Theft from vehicle and vandalism both logged below-trend signals this month, and the 12-month picture backs that up: theft from vehicle is down 50.3% year-over-year (95 vs. 191) and burglary is down 39.0% (153 vs. 251). Robbery, while a low-volume category, is down 80.0% over the same window — 3 incidents against 15 the prior year.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 368 incidents — about 94% above the 190 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 95 incidents — about 62% below the 252 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 69 incidents — about 36% below the 108 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 54 incidents — about 62% below the 144 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 95, down 50% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 153, down 39% from 251 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 47% from 101 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Noe Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Western Addition
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Noe Valley's 368.
Open page →Pacific Heights
382 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Noe Valley's 368.
Open page →Hayes Valley
342 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Noe Valley's 368.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Noe Valley has spiked other larceny historically (16 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 56.2% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 16 | 56.2% |
Each row shows Noe Valley's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across San Francisco); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Noe Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.