Noe Valley Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Noe Valley is a family-friendly residential neighborhood south of the Mission, set in a 'banana belt' microclimate that keeps it noticeably sunnier than fog-prone parts of the city. Its commercial life clusters along 24th Street, lined with bakeries, cafes, and small shops set against blocks of Victorian and Edwardian homes.
Six categories moved in Noe Valley this September, split evenly between single-month below-trend signals and sustained multi-year structural shifts. Three categories, theft from vehicle, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft, all ran below trend in the current month. Three more registered as sustained shifts, meaning the declines extend across the trailing 12 months, not just this period. The overall shape is a broad, deepening pullback across property crime.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest individual signal: 97 incidents over the past 12 months against 137 in the prior year, down 29.2%. Motor vehicle theft has moved further still, 41 incidents vs 78, a 47.4% reduction year-over-year. Burglary tells the same story at scale, 120 incidents against 201 in the prior 12 months, down 40.3%. Every other tracked category was also below or flat against the prior year, with robbery at 3 incidents vs 9 the clearest sign of how far some volumes have come down.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 61% below the 246 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 64 incidents — about 40% below the 106 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 71% below the 140 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 120, down 40% from 201 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 41, down 47% from 78 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 97, down 29% from 137 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Noe Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Bernal Heights
99 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Noe Valley's 97.
Open page →West of Twin Peaks
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Noe Valley's 97.
Open page →Excelsior
90 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Noe Valley's 97.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Noe Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.