Noe Valley Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Noe Valley is a family-friendly residential neighborhood south of the Mission, set in a 'banana belt' microclimate that keeps it noticeably sunnier than fog-prone parts of the city. Its commercial life clusters along 24th Street, lined with bakeries, cafes, and small shops set against blocks of Victorian and Edwardian homes.
Noe Valley had a mixed month in March 2026 — seven tracked signals across three drop signals, one spike, three sustained shifts, and one zero-event signal. The dominant structural story is a broad, multi-year pullback across property crime categories, but the month's most notable single-category move cuts against that: other larceny spiked even as everything else trended down.
Theft from vehicle and vandalism both ran below trend this month, part of a 12-month picture that is sharply lower year-over-year — theft from vehicle is down 49.0% (103 vs. 202 prior-year incidents) and burglary is down 38.8% (156 vs. 255). Other larceny is the outlier: the current 12-month total of 364 incidents sits well above the 187.55 baseline mean and is essentially flat year-over-year against 360 prior-year incidents, making it the one category that hasn't followed the neighborhood's broader downward trend.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 364 incidents — about 94% above the 188 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 103 incidents — about 59% below the 253 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 68 incidents — about 38% below the 109 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 62% below the 144 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 103, down 49% from 202 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 156, down 39% from 255 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 47% from 103 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Noe Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Western Addition
351 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Noe Valley's 364.
Open page →Hayes Valley
349 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Noe Valley's 364.
Open page →Pacific Heights
397 incidents over the past 12 months — 33 above Noe Valley's 364.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Noe Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.