Lakeshore Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Lakeshore is a quiet southwestern neighborhood organized around freshwater Lake Merced, the Stonestown Galleria shopping center, and the SF State campus on its eastern edge. It has a more suburban character than most of the city, with single-family homes, golf courses, and easy access to the Pacific coastline.
April 2026 produced a single notable signal in Lakeshore — one sustained shift, no spikes, no drops, no rare events. The month was structurally quiet across most tracked categories, with the one movement being a longer-term structural change rather than a one-month swing.
Other larceny is the sole tracked signal: 471 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 359 in the prior 12, a 31.2% increase that reflects a multi-month structural shift, not a single outlier month. Elsewhere, the 12-month picture is broadly negative in the better direction — theft from vehicle down 17.8% (111 vs 135), motor vehicle theft down 24.5% (77 vs 102), robbery down 12.5% (21 vs 24), and aggravated assault down 10.3% (26 vs 29). Burglary is also up 43.2% (63 vs 44), but did not cross the anomaly threshold this month. Everything outside other larceny ran within expected range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 471, up 31% from 359 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lakeshore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Nob Hill
489 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Lakeshore's 471.
Open page →Marina
440 incidents over the past 12 months — 31 below Lakeshore's 471.
Open page →Bayview Hunters Point
427 incidents over the past 12 months — 44 below Lakeshore's 471.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Lakeshoredoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 3 | — too few |
Each row shows Lakeshore's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across San Francisco); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lakeshore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.