Lakeshore Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Lakeshore is a quiet southwestern neighborhood organized around freshwater Lake Merced, the Stonestown Galleria shopping center, and the SF State campus on its eastern edge. It has a more suburban character than most of the city, with single-family homes, golf courses, and easy access to the Pacific coastline.
Three signals shaped September 2026 in Lakeshore: one spike and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant move is in other larceny, which registered both a one-month spike and a multi-month structural shift upward, an unusual combination that points to a durable change rather than a single noisy month. Theft from vehicle, by contrast, has settled into a sustained decline. The rest of the tracked categories, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism, all came in within normal range.
Other larceny now stands at 542 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 41.1% against the prior 12-month total of 384. Theft from vehicle tells the opposite story: 78 incidents in the current 12 months against 128 in the year before, a 39.1% reduction that has held long enough to qualify as a structural shift rather than a monthly fluctuation. Those two categories are pulling in opposite directions, and the net picture for Lakeshore is one of mixed movement concentrated in larceny, not a broad neighborhood-wide trend.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 542 incidents — about 70% above the 319 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 542, up 41% from 384 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 39% from 128 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lakeshore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Castro/Upper Market
509 incidents over the past 12 months — 33 below Lakeshore's 542.
Open page →Marina
461 incidents over the past 12 months — 81 below Lakeshore's 542.
Open page →Bayview Hunters Point
426 incidents over the past 12 months — 116 below Lakeshore's 542.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Lakeshoredoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Lakeshore's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across San Francisco); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lakeshore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.