Glen Park Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Glen Park is a small, residential village clustered around the Glen Park BART station and its short Diamond/Chenery commercial strip. It feels distinctly small-town within the city, with the rugged 70-acre Glen Canyon Park — a rare stretch of unmanicured native landscape in San Francisco — at its eastern edge.
Five categories moved in Glen Park this September, three single-month below-trend signals and two sustained shifts pointing to a structural change over the past year. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle, vandalism, and other larceny all ran below trend this month. The 12-month trajectory reinforces that picture: theft from vehicle is down 54.5% against the prior year, 25 incidents vs. 55, and burglary has dropped 49.0%, from 51 to 26. The two sustained-shift signals suggest these are not short-term fluctuations but a multi-month recalibration across the neighborhood's property crime categories.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 83% below the 147 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 59% below the 51 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 46% below the 66 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 25, down 55% from 55 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 26, down 49% from 51 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Glen Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Twin Peaks
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Glen Park's 25.
Open page →Treasure Island
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Glen Park's 25.
Open page →Presidio
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 below Glen Park's 25.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glen Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.