Sunset/Parkside Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Sunset and adjoining Parkside form San Francisco's largest residential district by area, a foggy western expanse of low-rise single-family homes that runs from Golden Gate Park to the Pacific. The combined area has a quieter, family-oriented pace, and its own commercial corridors along Irving, Noriega, and Taraval Streets.
Eight categories moved in Sunset/Parkside this June — five ran below trend on a single-month basis, three registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes and no rare events. The breadth here is notable: this isn't one category pulling the summary down, it's the whole mix.
Vandalism, robbery, and aggravated assault all came in below trend this month. Vandalism leads the signal list with a current 12-month total of 182 incidents against a baseline of 272.76. The structural declines behind those single-month signals are substantial: aggravated assault is down 41.5% over the trailing 12 months (31 incidents vs. 53 prior), motor vehicle theft is down 46.9% (112 vs. 211), and theft from vehicle is down 45.2% (238 vs. 434). The three sustained-shift signals confirm these aren't one-month fluctuations — the lower volume has held across multiple months.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 182 incidents — about 33% below the 273 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 47% below the 53 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 35% below the 48 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 238 incidents — about 63% below the 638 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 112 incidents — about 64% below the 313 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 238, down 45% from 434 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 112, down 47% from 211 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 135, down 41% from 229 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Sunset/Parkside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Western Addition
193 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Sunset/Parkside's 182.
Open page →Nob Hill
169 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Sunset/Parkside's 182.
Open page →Hayes Valley
156 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Sunset/Parkside's 182.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Sunset/Parkside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.