Outer Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Outer Mission is the residential southern extension of the Mission proper, organized around Mission Street as it runs toward the county line. A working-class neighborhood of single-family stucco homes — quieter and more suburban than the Mission's busier inner blocks.
Eight categories moved in Outer Mission this June — three registered as one-month below-trend signals and five as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Burglary leads the top signals with 52 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 89 — down 43.5% year-over-year. Theft from vehicle and vandalism also ran below trend, with theft from vehicle off 45.7% (76 vs. 140 prior 12 months) and vandalism down 29.8% (92 vs. 131). Motor vehicle theft carries the sharpest 12-month move of any tracked category: 56 incidents against 151 in the prior year, a 62.9% decline that reflects a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Aggravated assault is the one counter-trend, up 16.7% (49 vs. 42), and is the only category running in the opposite direction this period.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 42% below the 89 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 76 incidents — about 68% below the 236 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 92 incidents — about 33% below the 138 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 63% from 151 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 76, down 46% from 140 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 44% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 60, down 41% from 102 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Outer Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Lakeshore
54 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Outer Mission's 52.
Open page →North Beach
56 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Outer Mission's 52.
Open page →Chinatown
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Outer Mission's 52.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Outer Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.