Outer Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Outer Mission is the residential southern extension of the Mission proper, organized around Mission Street as it runs toward the county line. A working-class neighborhood of single-family stucco homes — quieter and more suburban than the Mission's busier inner blocks.
Five categories moved in Outer Mission this September, four running below their single-month trend and one showing a longer structural shift. The shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Burglary is the strongest signal, down 38.6% over the trailing 12 months, 43 incidents against 70 in the prior year. Theft from vehicle and vandalism also ran below trend, with theft from vehicle down 30.8% year-over-year (74 vs. 107) and vandalism off 18.4% (93 vs. 114). Motor vehicle theft extends the structural picture further: down 63.9% against the prior 12 months, 44 incidents against 122, a multi-year move well beyond a single quiet month.
Notable signals 4
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 51% below the 89 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 74 incidents — about 68% below the 232 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 93 incidents — about 32% below the 137 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 44 incidents — about 75% below the 176 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 44, down 64% from 122 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Outer Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Lakeshore
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Outer Mission's 43.
Open page →Excelsior
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Outer Mission's 43.
Open page →Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Outer Mission's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Outer Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.