Outer Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Outer Mission is the residential southern extension of the Mission proper, organized around Mission Street as it runs toward the county line. A working-class neighborhood of single-family stucco homes — quieter and more suburban than the Mission's busier inner blocks.
Seven categories moved in Outer Mission this April — three ran below trend on the month, and four registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle, burglary, and vandalism all came in below trend this month. The longer-term picture reinforces that pattern: theft from vehicle is down 41.8% over the trailing 12 months (89 incidents vs. 153 in the prior year), motor vehicle theft is down 55.1% (71 vs. 158), and robbery has fallen 45.0% (33 vs. 60). The four sustained-shift signals confirm these aren't single-month moves — the structural decline across property categories in Outer Mission has been building across multiple reporting periods.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 89 incidents — about 63% below the 238 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 62 incidents — about 30% below the 89 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 96 incidents — about 30% below the 138 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 71, down 55% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 89, down 42% from 153 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 63, down 40% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 45% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Outer Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Inner Sunset
94 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Outer Mission's 89.
Open page →Noe Valley
95 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Outer Mission's 89.
Open page →Lone Mountain/USF
82 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Outer Mission's 89.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Outer Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.