Outer Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Outer Mission is the residential southern extension of the Mission proper, organized around Mission Street as it runs toward the county line. A working-class neighborhood of single-family stucco homes — quieter and more suburban than the Mission's busier inner blocks.
Seven categories moved in Outer Mission this March — five as sustained structural shifts and two as single-month below-trend signals. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year decline across property crime: robbery, motor vehicle theft, theft from vehicle, burglary, and other larceny have all been running below their prior-year levels for long enough to register as structural changes, not just a quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest data point: 94 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 239.45 — and down 39.4% versus the prior 12-month total of 155. Vandalism also ran below trend this month alongside that theft-from-vehicle drop. The sustained-shift category with the largest year-over-year gap is robbery, down 53.2% (29 incidents vs. 62 in the prior period), with motor vehicle theft close behind at -51.9%. Every tracked category in Outer Mission is lower than its prior-year total; nothing moved in the other direction.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 94 incidents — about 61% below the 239 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 94 incidents — about 32% below the 138 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 52% from 162 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 94, down 39% from 155 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 29, down 53% from 62 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 67, down 36% from 104 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Outer Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Inner Sunset
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Outer Mission's 94.
Open page →Lone Mountain/USF
87 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Outer Mission's 94.
Open page →Noe Valley
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Outer Mission's 94.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Outer Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.