Russian Hill Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Russian Hill is a steep residential neighborhood north of Nob Hill, famous worldwide for the eight switchbacks of Lombard Street and the Hyde-Powell cable car that climbs its slopes. Behind the postcard streets, it is a quietly affluent area of apartment buildings and small homes mixed with the cafes and shops of Polk Street.
Six categories moved in Russian Hill this April — four ran below trend in the current month, and two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes in the mix.
Robbery, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism all posted below-trend signals. The robbery drop is the sharpest relative to history: the current 12-month total is 19, against a baseline of 44.94 — and down 18.8% on the prior 12 months. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft show the deepest year-over-year moves at -44.4% and -43.2% respectively, with aggravated assault down 50.0% to 11 incidents over the trailing year. Other larceny and burglary are the two categories running above their prior-year levels — up 26.7% and 15.1% — but neither generated a spike signal this month.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 58% below the 45 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 54 incidents — about 55% below the 119 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 53% below the 208 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 150 incidents — about 88% below the 1233 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 150, down 44% from 270 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 43% from 95 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Russian Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Pacific Heights
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Russian Hill's 19.
Open page →Lakeshore
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Russian Hill's 19.
Open page →Visitacion Valley
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Russian Hill's 19.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Russian Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.