Pacific Heights Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Pacific Heights is one of San Francisco's wealthiest neighborhoods — a hilltop district of grand Victorian and Edwardian mansions, embassies, and consulates with sweeping views of the bay. Its commercial spines along Fillmore and Sacramento Streets carry boutiques, restaurants, and the kind of low-key luxury that has long defined the area.
Three categories moved in Pacific Heights this August briefing, and the mix is structurally downward. One category registered a single-month below-trend signal, two show multi-month sustained shifts, and one category recorded a zero-event month. The dominant pattern is a broad pullback across property crime, not a single noisy outlier.
Vandalism is the strongest signal: 88 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 152 in the prior year, a 42.1% year-over-year drop, and it also shows a sustained multi-month downward shift. Theft from vehicle is on a similar structural trajectory, down 39.0% year-over-year (155 vs. 254). Other categories were within normal range, though robbery and aggravated assault are worth watching, up 70.0% and 57.1% respectively over 12 months, from low absolute bases of 17 and 11 incidents.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 52% below the 184 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 155, down 39% from 254 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 88, down 42% from 152 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pacific Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Potrero Hill
90 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Pacific Heights's 88.
Open page →Mission Bay
84 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Pacific Heights's 88.
Open page →Outer Mission
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Pacific Heights's 88.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pacific Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.