Pacific Heights Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Pacific Heights is one of San Francisco's wealthiest neighborhoods — a hilltop district of grand Victorian and Edwardian mansions, embassies, and consulates with sweeping views of the bay. Its commercial spines along Fillmore and Sacramento Streets carry boutiques, restaurants, and the kind of low-key luxury that has long defined the area.
Pacific Heights in June 2026 had five signals — one single-month below-trend signal, four sustained structural shifts, and one zero-event category. The dominant story is structural: property crime is being reshuffled, with some categories falling sharply over the trailing 12 months while burglary has moved in the opposite direction.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month move — 95 incidents in the current 12-month window against a prior-year count of 153, down 37.9%. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft show similar sustained declines, with theft from vehicle at 168 incidents vs. 252 prior (-33.3%) and motor vehicle theft at 72 vs. 115 (-37.4%). Burglary runs the other way: 209 incidents against 156 in the prior 12 months, a 34.0% increase that is now a multi-month structural pattern, not a one-month anomaly.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 95 incidents — about 49% below the 185 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 168, down 33% from 252 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 95, down 38% from 153 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 37% from 115 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 209, up 34% from 156 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pacific Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Excelsior
96 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Pacific Heights's 95.
Open page →Outer Mission
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Pacific Heights's 95.
Open page →Outer Richmond
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Pacific Heights's 95.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pacific Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.