Pacific Heights Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Pacific Heights is one of San Francisco's wealthiest neighborhoods — a hilltop district of grand Victorian and Edwardian mansions, embassies, and consulates with sweeping views of the bay. Its commercial spines along Fillmore and Sacramento Streets carry boutiques, restaurants, and the kind of low-key luxury that has long defined the area.
Pacific Heights had six tracked signals in April 2026, split between two one-month below-trend moves and four sustained structural shifts. The dominant story is downward across property crime — motor vehicle theft and vandalism both ran below trend this month, while four categories reflect multi-month structural changes rather than single quiet readings. Burglary is the exception: it registered a sustained increase, moving against the otherwise downward grain.
Vandalism is now at 104 incidents over the trailing 12 months, well below its baseline and down 30.2% against the prior-year period of 149. Motor vehicle theft tells a similar story — 65 incidents in the current window versus 123 in the prior 12 months, a 47.2% reduction. Burglary runs the other direction: 202 incidents in the current 12 months against 150 in the prior period, up 34.7%, a shift that has been building across multiple months rather than appearing in a single reporting period.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 104 incidents — about 44% below the 186 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 53% below the 139 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 65, down 47% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 184, down 30% from 264 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 104, down 30% from 149 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 202, up 35% from 150 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pacific Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Lakeshore
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Pacific Heights's 104.
Open page →Outer Richmond
101 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Pacific Heights's 104.
Open page →West of Twin Peaks
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Pacific Heights's 104.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pacific Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.