Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Mission is one of San Francisco's most culturally significant neighborhoods, with an extraordinary concentration of public murals, taquerias, and Mission San Francisco de Asís (Mission Dolores), the oldest standing building in the city. Today it is also a center of nightlife and restaurants along Valencia and 24th Streets, and the most visible front line of the city's gentrification debates.
Nine categories moved in the Mission this September, all pointing the same direction. Five ran below trend as single-month drops, and four show sustained structural shifts over the trailing 12 months. The breadth here is notable: property crime and violent crime alike are down, not just one pocket of the neighborhood.
Vandalism, robbery, and burglary were the three strongest signals, all below trend. Burglary's 12-month total is 364 against 550 in the prior year, a 33.8% decline. Robbery is down 29.8% on the same basis, 266 incidents against 379. Vandalism, the month's leading signal, sits at 675 over the trailing 12 months against a prior-year count of 764, a drop of 11.6%. Every other tracked category was within a narrower range, with the exception of sexual assault, which is up 80.0% year-over-year on a small base, 18 incidents against 10.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 675 incidents — about 28% below the 933 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 266 incidents — about 37% below the 421 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 364 incidents — about 43% below the 643 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 384 incidents — about 19% below the 477 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 376 incidents — about 53% below the 796 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 364, down 34% from 550 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 376, down 30% from 534 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 469, down 26% from 636 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 266, down 30% from 379 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Tenderloin
503 incidents over the past 12 months — 172 below Mission's 675.
Open page →South of Market
468 incidents over the past 12 months — 207 below Mission's 675.
Open page →Bayview Hunters Point
414 incidents over the past 12 months — 261 below Mission's 675.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.