Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Mission is one of San Francisco's most culturally significant neighborhoods, with an extraordinary concentration of public murals, taquerias, and Mission San Francisco de Asís (Mission Dolores), the oldest standing building in the city. Today it is also a center of nightlife and restaurants along Valencia and 24th Streets, and the most visible front line of the city's gentrification debates.
Six categories moved in the Mission this month — five as sustained structural shifts and one as a single-month below-trend signal. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across property crime, with violent crime following the same direction. This is not a one-category story.
Vandalism leads the fresh signals: the current 12-month total is 650 incidents against a baseline of 943.33, a gap that reflects persistent below-trend volume rather than a single quiet month. Robbery and Burglary are both sustained shifts downward — robbery is down 28.6% year-over-year (305 vs. 427) and burglary is down 39.1% (415 vs. 682). The remaining categories in the sustained-shift group follow the same direction. Homicide is the one counter-signal in the data: 10 incidents in the current 12 months against 6 in the prior year, a 66.7% increase on a small base.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 650 incidents — about 31% below the 943 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 440, down 40% from 734 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 415, down 39% from 682 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 477, down 36% from 741 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 650, down 25% from 870 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
South of Market
526 incidents over the past 12 months — 124 below Mission's 650.
Open page →Tenderloin
493 incidents over the past 12 months — 157 below Mission's 650.
Open page →Bayview Hunters Point
431 incidents over the past 12 months — 219 below Mission's 650.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.