Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Mission is one of San Francisco's most culturally significant neighborhoods, with an extraordinary concentration of public murals, taquerias, and Mission San Francisco de Asís (Mission Dolores), the oldest standing building in the city. Today it is also a center of nightlife and restaurants along Valencia and 24th Streets, and the most visible front line of the city's gentrification debates.
Seven categories moved in the Mission this June — three below-trend signals and four sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with declines spread across burglary, theft, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft rather than concentrated in a single area.
Vandalism, burglary, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend this month. Over the trailing 12 months, burglary is down 42.3% against the prior year (388 incidents vs. 672), motor vehicle theft is down 38.5% (405 vs. 659), and vandalism sits at 653 incidents against a prior-year 810 — a 19.4% decline. The four sustained-shift signals confirm these aren't one-month dips: the structural move in Mission property crime has been building across multiple reporting periods.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 653 incidents — about 30% below the 939 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 388 incidents — about 40% below the 645 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 405 incidents — about 50% below the 805 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 388, down 42% from 672 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 405, down 39% from 659 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 455, down 35% from 699 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 291, down 28% from 405 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
South of Market
507 incidents over the past 12 months — 146 below Mission's 653.
Open page →Tenderloin
473 incidents over the past 12 months — 180 below Mission's 653.
Open page →Bayview Hunters Point
422 incidents over the past 12 months — 231 below Mission's 653.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.