Mission Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Mission is one of San Francisco's most culturally significant neighborhoods, with an extraordinary concentration of public murals, taquerias, and Mission San Francisco de Asís (Mission Dolores), the oldest standing building in the city. Today it is also a center of nightlife and restaurants along Valencia and 24th Streets, and the most visible front line of the city's gentrification debates.
Nine categories moved in the Mission this August, and the shape is broadly downward. Five ran below trend in a single-month drop, and four show sustained multi-month structural shifts. There are no spikes and no rare events. The breadth here is the story: this is not one category pulling the average down, it is a neighborhood-wide pattern of declining volume across property and violent crime alike.
Vandalism, aggravated assault, and robbery are the three strongest signals, all running below trend. Burglary is the most dramatic year-over-year move at -36.2%, 373 incidents in the current 12 months against 585 in the prior year. Robbery follows at -30.9%, 270 vs 391. Motor vehicle theft is down -33.8% and theft from vehicle -27.0%. Every tracked category except sexual assault is below its prior-year level, and most of the declines are large enough to reflect a multi-year structural shift rather than a quiet month.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 653 incidents — about 30% below the 935 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 382 incidents — about 20% below the 478 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 270 incidents — about 36% below the 421 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 373 incidents — about 42% below the 644 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 378 incidents — about 53% below the 800 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 373, down 36% from 585 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 378, down 34% from 571 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 470, down 27% from 644 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 270, down 31% from 391 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mission compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Tenderloin
496 incidents over the past 12 months — 157 below Mission's 653.
Open page →South of Market
465 incidents over the past 12 months — 188 below Mission's 653.
Open page →Bayview Hunters Point
413 incidents over the past 12 months — 240 below Mission's 653.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mission, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.