Presidio Heights Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Presidio Heights is a small, affluent residential district between Pacific Heights and the Presidio, lined with stately Victorian and Edwardian homes along quiet, tree-shaded streets. Its commercial life centers on Sacramento and California Streets, and the western edge gives way directly into the forested Presidio.
Six categories moved in Presidio Heights in March 2026 — four registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts, two as single-period drops, and one as a zero-event signal. The dominant pattern is a broad, multi-year decline across property crime, not a single anomalous month.
Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both ran below trend in the single-month signals, while burglary's sustained-shift reading reflects a longer structural move: 53 incidents over the current 12 months against 96 in the prior 12, down 44.8%. Other larceny and aggravated assault show similar sustained trajectories — other larceny at 86 incidents vs. 154 prior-year, aggravated assault at 2 vs. 8. Vandalism is the one category running against the grain, up 8.6% on a 12-month basis, though its absolute volume remains modest at 38 incidents.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 65% below the 60 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 55 incidents — about 59% below the 134 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 86, down 44% from 154 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 45% from 96 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 50% from 42 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 36% from 86 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Presidio Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Japantown
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Presidio Heights's 21.
Open page →Twin Peaks
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Presidio Heights's 21.
Open page →Treasure Island
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Presidio Heights's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Presidio Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.