Presidio Heights Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Presidio Heights is a small, affluent residential district between Pacific Heights and the Presidio, lined with stately Victorian and Edwardian homes along quiet, tree-shaded streets. Its commercial life centers on Sacramento and California Streets, and the western edge gives way directly into the forested Presidio.
Two categories moved below trend in Presidio Heights this month, theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft, alongside a zero-event signal. The broader 12-month picture reinforces the pattern: property crime across the neighborhood has been running well below prior-year levels across nearly every tracked category.
Theft from vehicle is down 36.5% against the prior 12 months, 47 incidents versus 74 the year before. Motor vehicle theft follows the same direction, down 33.3%, from 36 to 24. Burglary is also lower, 65 versus 90, a 27.8% decline, and aggravated assault dropped from 5 incidents to 2 over the same span. Every category in the summary is below its prior-year level, and the two below-trend signals this month are consistent with that multi-year downward drift rather than a single-month anomaly.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 47 incidents — about 64% below the 129 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 59% below the 58 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Presidio Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Inner Richmond
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Presidio Heights's 47.
Open page →Visitacion Valley
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Presidio Heights's 47.
Open page →Mission Bay
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Presidio Heights's 47.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Presidio Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.