Presidio Heights Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Presidio Heights is a small, affluent residential district between Pacific Heights and the Presidio, lined with stately Victorian and Edwardian homes along quiet, tree-shaded streets. Its commercial life centers on Sacramento and California Streets, and the western edge gives way directly into the forested Presidio.
Seven tracked signals surfaced in Presidio Heights this April — three sustained shifts, two below-trend drops, one streak break, and one zero-event signal. The structural direction is broadly downward across property crime, with the streak break in Sexual Assault standing apart as the month's most distinctive single move.
Motor Vehicle Theft and Theft from Vehicle both ran below trend this month; over the trailing 12 months, motor vehicle theft is down 38.5% (24 incidents vs. 39 prior year) and theft from vehicle is down 37.6% (53 vs. 85). Burglary and Other Larceny show the same sustained-shift pattern — down 42.9% and 38.4% respectively — meaning the property crime decline in Presidio Heights is structural, not a one-month dip. The Sexual Assault streak break is the outlier: a category resurfacing after a quiet gap, against an otherwise broad-based downward trend.
Notable signals 3
Sexual Assault
First incident since January 2024 — a 2-year gap ended this month.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 60% below the 60 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 53 incidents — about 60% below the 133 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 90, down 38% from 146 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 43% from 98 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 38% from 85 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Presidio Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Chinatown
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Presidio Heights's 1.
Open page →Inner Richmond
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Presidio Heights's 1.
Open page →Noe Valley
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Presidio Heights's 1.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Presidio Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.