Inner Sunset Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Inner Sunset is a residential neighborhood south of Golden Gate Park, organized around the cafes and restaurants at the intersection of Ninth Avenue and Irving Street. Its character is shaped by proximity to UCSF's Parnassus campus, family households in single-family homes, and the cool, foggy western weather of the city.
Four categories moved in Inner Sunset this March — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with theft from vehicle and vandalism running below trend this month and burglary showing evidence of a longer-term decline.
Theft from vehicle leads the signals: the current 12-month total is 100 incidents against a prior-year figure of 155, down 35.5%. Burglary tells a similar story over a longer horizon — 79 incidents in the trailing 12 months versus 115 the year before, a 31.3% reduction that registers as a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Vandalism is also below trend. Robbery is the one counter-move: 15 incidents in the current 12 months versus 12 prior, up 25.0%, though at those volumes the absolute change is small.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 100 incidents — about 67% below the 299 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 74 incidents — about 37% below the 118 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 100, down 36% from 155 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 31% from 115 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Inner Sunset compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Noe Valley
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Inner Sunset's 100.
Open page →Outer Mission
94 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Inner Sunset's 100.
Open page →Lone Mountain/USF
87 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Inner Sunset's 100.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Inner Sunset, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.