West of Twin Peaks Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
West of Twin Peaks is a planned residential cluster — including Forest Hill, Miraloma Park, and Sherwood Forest — built largely between the 1910s and 1940s on the western slopes of the Twin Peaks ridge. It is defined by curving, leafy streets of single-family homes, with the wooded Mount Davidson at its southern edge.
Eight categories moved in West of Twin Peaks this August, split evenly between one-month below-trend signals and multi-month sustained shifts. The dominant pattern is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend in August. The 12-month totals confirm how deep the structural moves run: robbery is down 65.0% against the prior year (14 incidents vs. 40), theft from vehicle is down 51.4% (108 vs. 222), and burglary is down 34.3% (88 vs. 134). Other larceny is the one category moving in the opposite direction, up 27.1% over the prior 12 months to 286 incidents, and stands as the clearest counterweight to an otherwise broad property-crime decline.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 111 incidents — about 44% below the 198 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 108 incidents — about 75% below the 439 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 62 incidents — about 71% below the 216 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 65% below the 249 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 108, down 51% from 222 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 62, down 42% from 106 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 88, down 34% from 134 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 286, up 27% from 225 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How West of Twin Peaks compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Excelsior
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below West of Twin Peaks's 111.
Open page →North Beach
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West of Twin Peaks's 111.
Open page →Outer Richmond
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below West of Twin Peaks's 111.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West of Twin Peaks, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.