West of Twin Peaks Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
West of Twin Peaks is a planned residential cluster — including Forest Hill, Miraloma Park, and Sherwood Forest — built largely between the 1910s and 1940s on the western slopes of the Twin Peaks ridge. It is defined by curving, leafy streets of single-family homes, with the wooded Mount Davidson at its southern edge.
Eight categories moved in West of Twin Peaks this September, all of them downward. Five ran below their single-month trend and three reflect longer structural shifts, a mix that points to a broad and durable property-crime decline rather than a single quiet month.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft were the three strongest signals, all below trend. The 12-month picture reinforces the direction: theft from vehicle is down 51.6% against the prior year, 103 incidents vs 213, while motor vehicle theft fell 38.0% and burglary dropped 35.1%. Other larceny is the one category moving the other way, up 22.1% over the same period, 287 incidents against 235, and it is the outlier in an otherwise consistent pattern of decline.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 46% below the 197 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 103 incidents — about 76% below the 436 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 62 incidents — about 71% below the 215 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 12 incidents — about 72% below the 42 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 85 incidents — about 66% below the 248 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 103, down 52% from 213 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 35% from 131 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 62, down 38% from 100 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How West of Twin Peaks compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
North Beach
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above West of Twin Peaks's 106.
Open page →Excelsior
112 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above West of Twin Peaks's 106.
Open page →Outer Richmond
97 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below West of Twin Peaks's 106.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West of Twin Peaks, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.