West of Twin Peaks Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
West of Twin Peaks is a planned residential cluster — including Forest Hill, Miraloma Park, and Sherwood Forest — built largely between the 1910s and 1940s on the western slopes of the Twin Peaks ridge. It is defined by curving, leafy streets of single-family homes, with the wooded Mount Davidson at its southern edge.
West of Twin Peaks had eight tracked signals in March 2026 — four below-trend drops and four sustained shifts, all running in the same direction. The mix is uniformly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the month.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend. The 12-month vandalism total is 107, down from a baseline of 200.66 and off 34.0% against the prior year. Theft from vehicle fell 43.3% year-over-year to 139 incidents; motor vehicle theft is down 50.4% to 70. Four of the eight signals are sustained shifts, meaning the declines aren't just a one-month dip — they reflect structural movement across the trailing 12-month window.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 47% below the 201 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 139 incidents — about 69% below the 453 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 70 incidents — about 69% below the 223 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 101 incidents — about 61% below the 256 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 139, down 43% from 245 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 70, down 50% from 141 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 34% from 162 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 101, down 34% from 153 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How West of Twin Peaks compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Excelsior
105 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below West of Twin Peaks's 107.
Open page →Lakeshore
105 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below West of Twin Peaks's 107.
Open page →Outer Richmond
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below West of Twin Peaks's 107.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West of Twin Peaks, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.