West of Twin Peaks Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
West of Twin Peaks is a planned residential cluster — including Forest Hill, Miraloma Park, and Sherwood Forest — built largely between the 1910s and 1940s on the western slopes of the Twin Peaks ridge. It is defined by curving, leafy streets of single-family homes, with the wooded Mount Davidson at its southern edge.
Eight categories moved in West of Twin Peaks this April — four ran below trend in the current month, four registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly and consistently downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Vandalism leads the signals: the trailing 12-month total sits at 109 incidents, down 31.0% against the prior year's 158. Theft from Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Theft both ran below trend as well — down 44.3% and 44.5% year-over-year respectively, to 131 and 71 incidents. Robbery shows the sharpest 12-month move: 17 incidents against 49 in the prior year, a 65.3% reduction. Other Larceny is the one counter-trend, up 20.4% to 277 incidents — the only category running above its prior-year level.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 109 incidents — about 46% below the 200 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 131 incidents — about 71% below the 450 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 71 incidents — about 68% below the 222 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 95 incidents — about 63% below the 255 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 131, down 44% from 235 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 71, down 45% from 128 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 95, down 40% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 109, down 31% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How West of Twin Peaks compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Excelsior
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above West of Twin Peaks's 109.
Open page →Pacific Heights
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below West of Twin Peaks's 109.
Open page →Lakeshore
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below West of Twin Peaks's 109.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West of Twin Peaks, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.