Inner Richmond Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
The Inner Richmond is a residential neighborhood north of Golden Gate Park, anchored by the Geary Boulevard and Clement Street commercial corridors. Long known for its dim sum restaurants, neighborhood bakeries, and a steady mix of long-established small businesses, it has a fog-belt climate and a lived-in pace.
Two categories moved in Inner Richmond this September, a quiet month overall. Vandalism registered a one-month below-trend signal, and theft from vehicle is showing a sustained multi-month structural decline, not just a single quiet period. The rest of tracked categories were within their normal ranges.
Theft from vehicle is down 45.3% over the trailing 12 months, 47 incidents against 86 in the prior year, making it one of the sharper property-crime drops in the neighborhood's recent record. Vandalism's 12-month total sits at 69, well below where it has run historically. Burglary also continues to trend lower at 56 incidents vs. 85 the prior year, though it did not cross the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 69 incidents — about 44% below the 123 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 45% from 86 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Inner Richmond compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Visitacion Valley
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Inner Richmond's 69.
Open page →Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Inner Richmond's 69.
Open page →Portola
72 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Inner Richmond's 69.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Inner Richmond, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.