Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Oceanview, Merced, and Ingleside are three adjoining residential neighborhoods at San Francisco's southwestern edge — modest, foggy, and one of the most diverse parts of the city. The combined area is shaped by City College of San Francisco, family-oriented streets of small homes, and a quieter pace than the city center.
Five tracked signals across Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside this month — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend in March 2026; vandalism's 12-month total sits at 61 incidents against a multi-year baseline mean of 118.86. Theft from vehicle also carries a sustained-shift signal — its current 12-month count of 61 is down 69.0% from 197 the prior year, the steepest year-over-year move in the neighborhood. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism show similar structural compression: motor vehicle theft is down 45.5% and vandalism down 47.9% on a 12-month basis. Robbery is the one category moving the other direction, up 14.3% year over year, though at 16 incidents over 12 months it remains a low-volume category.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 49% below the 119 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 73% below the 225 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 61, down 69% from 197 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 46% from 132 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 61, down 48% from 117 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Lone Mountain/USF
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 61.
Open page →Noe Valley
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 61.
Open page →Inner Richmond
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 61.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.