Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Oceanview, Merced, and Ingleside are three adjoining residential neighborhoods at San Francisco's southwestern edge — modest, foggy, and one of the most diverse parts of the city. The combined area is shaped by City College of San Francisco, family-oriented streets of small homes, and a quieter pace than the city center.
Four categories moved in Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside this September, three one-month below-trend signals and one sustained multi-month shift. The overall shape is broadly downward, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Vandalism, theft from vehicle, and robbery all ran below trend this month. Robbery's 12-month total has fallen from 17 to 5, down 70.6% against the prior year, the sharpest year-over-year move in the neighborhood. Theft from vehicle is down 34.0% and motor vehicle theft down 39.3% over the same window, reinforcing a structural decline in vehicle-related property crime that extends well beyond a single quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 43% below the 118 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 62 incidents — about 72% below the 218 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 5 incidents — about 82% below the 28 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 39% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Inner Richmond
69 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 67.
Open page →Noe Valley
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 67.
Open page →Visitacion Valley
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 67.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.