Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Oceanview, Merced, and Ingleside are three adjoining residential neighborhoods at San Francisco's southwestern edge — modest, foggy, and one of the most diverse parts of the city. The combined area is shaped by City College of San Francisco, family-oriented streets of small homes, and a quieter pace than the city center.
Five categories moved in Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside this April — two ran below trend in the current month, and three registered as sustained structural shifts pointing to a longer-term downward pattern across property crime. The overall shape is broad and consistent: no spikes, no rare events, just a neighborhood where multiple categories have pulled well below their prior-year levels.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both came in below trend this month; theft from vehicle also appears as a sustained shift, with the trailing 12-month total at 59 incidents against 162 the prior year — down 63.6%. Vandalism's current 12-month count of 60 compares to a baseline around 118.81. Motor vehicle theft (down 41.9%, 72 vs. 124) and other larceny (down 34.8%, 58 vs. 89) follow the same direction. Burglary, robbery, and aggravated assault all stayed within a narrow range, with nothing moving against the grain.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 60 incidents — about 49% below the 119 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 74% below the 225 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 64% from 162 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 60, down 48% from 115 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 42% from 124 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Lone Mountain/USF
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 60.
Open page →Noe Valley
69 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 60.
Open page →Inner Sunset
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 60.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.