Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Oceanview, Merced, and Ingleside are three adjoining residential neighborhoods at San Francisco's southwestern edge — modest, foggy, and one of the most diverse parts of the city. The combined area is shaped by City College of San Francisco, family-oriented streets of small homes, and a quieter pace than the city center.
Five categories moved in Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside this August, all in the same direction. Two ran below trend as single-month drops, and three registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward, concentrated in property crime.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle are the two strongest single-month signals. Theft from vehicle has also crossed into sustained-shift territory: the trailing 12 months show 57 incidents against 105 in the prior year, down 45.7%. Vandalism tells a similar story at the 12-month level, 61 incidents vs. the prior year's 94, down 35.1%. Motor vehicle theft is also well below last year's pace, 57 incidents against 94, a 39.4% reduction, rounding out a month where every category that moved, moved down.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 48% below the 118 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 57 incidents — about 74% below the 220 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 57, down 46% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 57, down 39% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 61, down 35% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Inner Sunset
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 61.
Open page →Inner Richmond
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 61.
Open page →Lone Mountain/USF
56 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside's 61.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.